622
FXUS64 KMEG 202311
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
611 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
- OFF AND ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST EACH DAY
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A GLOOMY WEDNESDAY IS ON DISPLAY WITH A PERSISTENT STRATUS SHIELD
MOVING NORTH/NORTHWEST AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE
70S. THE LATEST KNQA RADAR SWEEP DENOTES SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
NORTH SITUATED ALONG YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, WHICH CONTINUES TO
WOBBLE ALONG I-40. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE REMAINED
MOSTLY DRY TODAY, THOUGH AS THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WOBBLE
FURTHER SOUTH, AN UPTICK POP-UP SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL RUMBLES
OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF OUR AREA, OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS,
WILL MIGRATE EAST, WHERE CAMS DENOTE ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MID-EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE
NORTH AND SOUTH, BECOME STATIONARY, LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT,
AND PRETTY MUCH KEEP WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ALOFT, CURRENT QUAZI-ZONAL
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION MORE SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH IN NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS THIS
UPPER-LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST, EVENTUALLY APPROACHING WESTERN
TEXAS BY THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, AND EMBEDDED SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EJECT IN FROM THE WEST, THEY WILL ACT AS ANOTHER
LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY MEAGER AS
WE REMAIN SOCKED IN, AND THERE ISN'T MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER OR
SURFACE LEVEL PATTERN. FRIDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY WHERE WE COULD
SEE AN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY AS A SURFACE LOW AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
SLIGHTLY. THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, AS LATEST LREF
PROBS HAVE A <20% CHANCE OF >500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND >30 KTS OF
BULK SHEAR, HOWEVER, AN UPTICK AND THUNDER AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY.
WITH PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND PWATS REMAINING AROUND 1.6-1.8",
NEARING THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS, WE WILL LIKELY RUN INTO A NUISANCE AND POTENTIALLY A
MARGINAL FLASH FLOODING PROBLEM. LOOKING IN THE PROBABILISTIC
REALM, LATEST LREF GUIDANCE HAS HAS A 35-50% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING 4" THROUGH TUESDAY. IN THE
DETERMINISTIC REALM, PRECIPITATION TOTALS EQUATE TO 3-4" WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. BE SURE TO BE COGNIZANT OF POTENTIAL
PONDING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. DUE TO PERSISTENT MOISTURE, CLOUD COVER, AND PRECIPITATION
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 70S AND TO LOWER 80S, HOWEVER,
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO 70S, LEADING TO MUGGY
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
AEH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA IS ONGOING WITH MENTION AT MEM, MKL, AND TUP
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME PATCHY FOG FOR MEM, MKL, AND TUP
NEAR SUNRISE. LOW CIGS WILL REMAIN INTO THE DAY TOMORROW WITH AN
UPTICK IN SHRA/TSRA ONCE AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE
IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ANYWHERE BESIDE TUP CURRENTLY.
AS FOR WINDS, WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE TO N/NE OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL EXIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE
40%. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS AS A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CMA
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