599
FXUS64 KMEG 211202
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
702 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
7 DAYS, CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
ANOTHER RAINY DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS A STALLED FRONT MEANDERED
THROUGH THE REGION, PUSHING UP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN AIR MASS CONTAINING ~2.0" PWATS. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED AS OF 03Z WITH BROAD STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION AND A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE
HOSTILE TO CONVECTION TOMORROW AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION, WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, HIGH PWATS
WILL STILL REMAIN, LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER
SUNSET, BUT WILL REINVIGORATE AHEAD OF A NEW SYSTEM EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SIT ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY,
REORGANIZING INTO A WEAK WARM FRONTAL ZONE AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION MOVES OVER THE AREA. INCREASED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
AND UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO HIGHER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FRIDAY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THE
MOST OPTIMAL TIMING FOR CONVECTION IN THIS ZONE, ROUGHLY ALONG I-
40, APPEARS TO BE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
WAVE TRANSITS THE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONGST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WARM FRONT. SOME
MODELS BRING THE BOUNDARY NORTH INTO KENTUCKY WHILE OTHERS KEEP
IT SOUTH, ROUGHLY ALONG I-40. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR
BOTH THE LOCATION AND EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AREAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIKELY SEEING WEAKER CONVECTION AND
LESS AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT. THAT BEING SAID, STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP REGARDLESS OF THE SCENARIO WITH AREAS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT LIKELY TO SEE MLCAPE RISE ABOVE 1500 J/KG THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS NEAR 2.0". THEREFORE, AREAS THAT
RECEIVE ANY TRAINING STORMS OR REPEAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE, HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
WEAK, BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH BORE THE WAVE FRIDAY, WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SUBSEQUENT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED FROM EITHER DECAYING MCSS FROM THE PLAINS OR SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. REGARDLESS, THESE PERTURBATIONS AND THE LACK OF
INCREASED RIDGING WILL KEEP ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
SIT OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHERN CONUS. EXACT PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE THANKS TO HIGH MODEL VARIABILITY
OWING TO PRIOR DAYS' CONVECTION. NONETHELESS, DAILY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOTS AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.
BY MONDAY A SOUTHERN-BRANCH UPPER LOW WILL HAVE EJECTED INTO
TEXAS FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HAD THIS
FEATURE AMPLIFY AND BECOME CUTOFF WITH TIME MONDAY WITH 40 KT MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION. MODEL VARIABILITY CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO MONDAY, PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO THE QUALITY OF
INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS PRIOR CONVECTION MAY WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE CALLED FOR
THIS UPPER LOW TO BRING ENOUGH HEIGHT FALLS TO COOL THESE LAYERS
THROUGH THE DAY, BUT MODELS ARE SINGING A DIFFERENT TUNE TODAY,
SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE MONDAY MAY BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, BUT BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ISOLATED AREAS OF 500 - 1000 J/KG MUCAPE.
SO, ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED MONDAY, BUT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER COVERAGE.
MODEL VARIABILITY, WHICH IS ALREADY HIGH AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST, EXPLODES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ENSEMBLES STRUGGLE TO
RESOLVE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUTOFF LOW. FROM A PATTERN
RECOGNITION POINT OF VIEW, THE CUTOFF FEATURE WILL PROBABLY FILL
IN WITH TIME WHILE PREVENTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES AND THE AMPLIFICATION OF A
RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE, A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED TO END THE FORECAST. WHEN
ALL IS SAID AND DONE, ANYWHERE FROM 2" - 5" OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED NEAR TUP TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT -SHRAS WILL IMPACT TUP THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
PREVAILING IFR CIGS AND INTERMITTENT LIFR VSBYS. ELSEWHERE, A MIX
OF MVFR, IFR, AND LIFR CIGS IS PREVALENT. CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AFTER 22/00Z,
WITH SCATTERED -SHRAS AND ISOLATED -TSRAS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT ALL SITES WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL EXIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE
40%. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS AS A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AC3
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