841
FXUS64 KMEG 211807
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
107 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
7 DAYS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S NEXT WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
ANOTHER MUGGY, AND CLOUDY DAY IS ON DISPLAY WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S AS A MEANDERING, NEARLY
STATIONARY, FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF NASHVILLE, TN THROUGH
YAZOO CITY, MS. THE LATEST KNQA RADAR SWEEP INDICATES A NEARLY
DRY MID-SOUTH WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS, SITUATED ALONG THE
FRONT, OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, CAMS HAVE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI STATELINE, ALONG A VERY
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE WOBBLING FRONT. HOWEVER, TODAY
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH A PERSISTENT STRATUS SHIELD.
TOMORROW WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO
THE MID-SOUTH. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO FALL, INCREASING
INSTABILITY WHICH WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
ON THE LOWER END AS THERE ISN'T MUCH OF A SYNOPTIC RESPONSE AND
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HINDER OUR CHANCES. HOWEVER,
AS THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1500 J/KG, 0-6 BULK WIND SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KTS, AND EFFECTIVE
SRH >100 M2/S2 IN ACCORDANCE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS, COULD BE
REALIZED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THOUGH AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IN THIS
EVOLUTION REMAINS ON THE LOWER END, IF ANYTHING, A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT MAY DEVELOP, AND A TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT LOOKS MORE PROBABLE TOMORROW AS PWATS SURGE NEAR
2", NEARING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR,
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH THAT RECEIVE
MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND TRAINING CELLS WILL LIKELY SEE A
MARGINAL FLASH FLOODING THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
2+" WITH YESTERDAY'S PERSISTENT RAINFALL, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40. BE
HEADS UP WHEN COMMUTING, AND BE SURE TO HEED ANY ROAD CLOSURES.
SOGGY AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH AND
BEGINS TO MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-SOUTH. ALOFT, A CUTOFF LOW
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA, WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST, BROADENING THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. OUR FORECAST
PWATS ALSO REMAIN 1.6"+, NEARING THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEMORIAL DAY WILL
LIKELY SEE AN UPTICK IN RAINFALL RATES AS PWATS SURGE NEAR THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM ONCE AGAIN AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION. WE'RE
LIKELY LOOKING AT MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ON MONDAY
VERSUS A SEVERE THREAT AS THE LATEST LREF GUIDANCE HAS <15%
CHANCE FOR SBCAPE >500 J/KG AND 30 KTS OF BULK WIND SHEAR.
SATURATED SOILS FROM SEVERAL DAYS OF PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL HELP
INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ON MONDAY. PAST
MONDAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN AS THIS UPPER-
LOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE WEATHER OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND
MOISTURE REMAINS. AS FAR AS RAINFALL TOTALS GO, LREF GUIDANCE HAS
AROUND A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING AN ADDITIONAL 3", MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-40 AND AROUND A 30-50% CHANCE NORTH. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST HAS AROUND 2-5" ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
AEH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR TUP. A FEW
TSRAS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THIS FRONT THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY IMPACTING TUP. ELSEWHERE, CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/VFR CONDS PREVAILING. THE STALLED FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WITH LOWER CIGS AND SHRAS
SPREADING NORTH. AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND INSTABILITY INCREASES, EXPECT SCATTERED
TSRAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED PROB30S TO ALL SITES.
OUTSIDE OF TSRAS EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEERING
FROM NE TO S AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL EXIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE
40%. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS AS A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...SJM
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