745
FXUS64 KMEG 022320
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- BEHIND TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT DEWPOINTS DECREASE RESULTING IN LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
- INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND, AS TEMPERATURES
WARM SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL HEAD BACK INTO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
A MUCH MORE BENIGN DAY IS ON DISPLAY WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 80S AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BEHIND TODAY'S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN, POP-UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE OVER AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE TODAY AS RESIDUAL
MOISTURE EXISTS IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH
WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ALOFT, AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, ASSOCIATED WITH AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN,
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
CONTINUALLY FILTERING DRIER, COOLER AIR. TOMORROW WILL BE
PLEASANT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S, DEWPOINTS LOWER 60S, AND
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, MUCH APPRECIATED RELIEF FROM THE
PAST NEARLY THREE WEEKS OF WET, UNSETTLED, AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE A NEAR RINSE AND REPEAT OF WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE
REGION. FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS, HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BEGINS TO BROADEN EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA, AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (20-50%) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
HEAD BACK INTO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND WEAK TROUGHING BEGINS TO
PUSH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
FORECAST PWATS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.8-2", NEARING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THOUGH THE
MOISTURE AXIS BEGINS TO INCREASE BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY, SATURDAY
DOES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE VERY DRY AIRMASS, BROUGHT IN BY
UPPER-RIDGING, WILL NEED TO BREAK DOWN FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL.
HOWEVER, HUMID CONDITIONS DO LOOK TO RETURN BEGINNING SATURDAY AS
DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO INCREASE. MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE PWATS REMAINING AROUND 1.8-2" RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LOW TRANSLATES NORTHEAST
BRINGING WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE MID-SOUTH
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY.
AEH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MKL DUE TO THIS, WHILE WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ELSEWHERE AS SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES. THE NEXT 30 HOURS IS
PRIMARILY A WIND FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.
AMD NOT SKED FOR JBR DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGE.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 40%
BEGINNING THURSDAY. EARLY SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...DNM
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