570
FXUS64 KMEG 031207
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
707 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY,
ALLOWING DRY AND COOL AIR TO FILTER INTO THE MID-SOUTH. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S THROUGH THURSDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EVIDENT ON FRIDAY AS THE OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES WILL STREAM INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND, AIDED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE OVER TEXAS.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A DRY AIR COLUMN, SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY WITH GREATER RAIN CHANCES MANIFESTING ON SUNDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A MESSY SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE SHEAR. HOWEVER,
SBCAPE VALUES NEARING 2000 J/KG WILL ENCOURAGE A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PULSE CONVECTION REGIME. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EACH DAY WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MID-SOUTH IN A WET AND WARM PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF JUNE.
ANS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL INDUCE A PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH GUSTS MAY
TRANSIENTLY REACH 10-12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
AMD NOT SKED IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR JBR DUE TO AN ONGOING ASOS
COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
MINRH WILL DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE MID-SOUTH. HOWEVER, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAIN LOW DURING THIS TIME DUE TO LIGHT 20 FT WINDS.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JDS
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