138
FXUS64 KMEG 041600
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1100 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY, WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
MOVING IN TO OUR WEST, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS ARRIVING
MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OVERALL, DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
BY SATURDAY, A CLOSED, UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE MID-
SOUTH. WITH THIS SURGE IN MOISTURE AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING TO
THE NORTHWEST, EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW WILL STALL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, LEAVING THE MID-SOUTH IN
A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. LREF GUIDANCE DOES HAVE SOME SPREAD AMONGST MEMBERS
WITH RESPECT TO POPS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES. MEMBERS WITH GENERALLY
HIGHER POPS KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHILE
MEMBERS WITH GENERALLY LOWER POPS HAVE TEMPERATURES CREEPING INTO
THE LOW 90S FOR SOME LOCATIONS. OVERALL, IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL, SUMMERTIME SET-UP WILL MANIFEST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CAPE VALUES WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON, SO A SMALL THREAT FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL EXIST. HOWEVER, ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24-
30 HOURS, SUPPORTED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY.
THE JBR TAF REMAINS AMD NOT SKED DUE TO AN ONGOING ASOS
COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGE. A TECHNICIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE DISPATCHED
TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
MINIMAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 40% THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH BY SUNDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JDS
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