293
FXUS64 KMEG 051231
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
731 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST LATE SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE ON
SUNDAY, THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS REMAINS LOW.
- TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MID-SUMMER-LIKE HEAT WILL ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE 589DM 500MB RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL DEAMPLIFY ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING A
PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW TO EDGE
SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. DESPITE SLIGHT
INCREASES IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURES AND SHEAR, FRIDAY'S RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN SLIM. BY SATURDAY, DEWPOINTS WILL RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER,
SUPPORTING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD THROUGH ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH
ON SUNDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A MIDLEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
AND HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PWAT VALUES OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL
REACH 2.25 INCHES (99TH PERCENTILE), WITH NEGLIGIBLE CINH AND
MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN BELOW 20KT, YIELDING SLOW-MOVING
RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY,
LEAVING WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY TUESDAY, WITH RIDGING
IN ITS WAKE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
SUFFICIENT LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MIDSOUTH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREDOMINATE BY
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND CONTINUED HIGH
HUMIDITY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST,
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING COASTAL LOW. FOR THE MIDSOUTH, THE
MAIN STORY FOR THE MID TO LATE PART NEXT WEEK WILL BE JULY-LIKE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AIRSPACE. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY SUB 10 KTS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
THE JBR TAF REMAINS AMD NOT SKED DUE TO AN ONGOING ASOS
COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGE. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS UNKNOWN.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
MINIMAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 40% THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ON
SUNDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...AEH
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