904
FXUS64 KMEG 051655
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1155 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCREASING TO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAIL CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S BY THE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER, SO A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
FEEL A BIT ON THE MUGGIER SIDE. OTHERWISE, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MANAGEABLE FOR EARLY JUNE EAST OF THE MS
RIVER, KEEPING APPARENT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO OUR ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
FURTHER TO THE EAST, ALLOWING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO
THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WOULD BE WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND ACROSS NORTHWEST MS. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH BY SUNDAY, AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRIEFLY STALLS TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE CURRENT
6 HOUR POPS ARE IN THE 70-90% RANGE, EARLY CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT MORE SCATTERED WITH ON AND OFF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY RATHER THAN AN ALL-DAY WASHOUT. A
SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND LIKELY TUESDAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO OUR NORTH. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM ABOUT HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND A HALF, BUT EXACT LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
A MORE TYPICAL, SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL LIKELY EMERGE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE COMING INTO A BIT
MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATE WEEK PATTERN. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR
DAILY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
IF THIS PATTERN PERSISTS, WE MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME HEAT
HEADLINES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS,
LEADING TO LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MID-
SOUTH. WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH WINDS, EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN (MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL) CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A MORE DEFINED SWATH OF PRECIP
SURGING UP FROM THE GULF COAST SATURDAY EVENING, JUST OUTSIDE THE
EXTENDED MEM TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
MINIMAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 40% THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGHER HUMIDITY
WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DAILY, AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CAD
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