473
FXUS64 KMEG 060446
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1146 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- SATURDAY WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES AND ONLY
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS.
- EXPECT MORE CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND A MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, IT WILL BECOME VERY HOT AND HUMID,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN EXPANSIVE 1019 MB HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND A 1003 MB LOW NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, WITH
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ALOFT, GOES-EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/NM BORDER WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONT. ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL AND MILD THIS EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS IT DOES, UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. MAINLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WITH COVERAGE REMAINING
AROUND 20% AND CORRELATED WITH PEAK HEATING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXPANDS
AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, LEADING TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES AMID INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK AS A LARGE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL, ACCOMPANIED BY
ISOLATED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY, WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY
MIDWEEK AND HEAT INDICES APPROACHING THE 105F MARK. THERE IS
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HEAT PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED BY
LATE WEEK.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN, ALLOWING WEAK IMPULSES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
TRANSITION WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES WHILE INCREASING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EACH DAY.
AC3
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AIRSPACE. DURING PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING TOMORROW AFTERNOON, A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD MOVE OVER TERMINALS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAF. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LARGELY SUB 10 KTS OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, VCSH, MVFR CONDITIONS, AND A PROB30 WAS DRAWN
IN AT MEM FOR -SHRA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGHER HUMIDITY RETURNING THIS WEEKEND AND PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP FINE FUELS MOIST. ADDITIONALLY,
WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, FURTHER MITIGATING FIRE RISK. EVEN AS HIGH HEAT RETURNS
MID-WEEK, ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH
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