291
FXUS64 KMEG 070452
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY, WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH BY
MID-WEEK.
- DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 90S; HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB ABOVE 100F BY MID-WEEK,
NECESSITATING ATTENTION TO HEAT SAFETY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
THE LATEST GOES-EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER
LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION
FIRING ON THE SE FLANK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE MID-SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW EVOLVES
INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECTS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HREF JOINT PROBABILITIES OF SBCAPE >
500 J/KG, BULK SHEAR >= 30 KNOTS, AND CIN > -25 J/KG ARE PINGING
IN THE 30 TO 50% RANGE FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. THUS, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT, WITH HAZARDS MAINLY BEING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A COUPLE OF HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A
MORNING MCS MAY TRAVERSE THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
IF THIS SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION, THERE IS A HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RAMP UP ON TUESDAY, AS A 591DAM
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MID-SOUTH FROM THE SW. THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A PAC NW TROUGH
DEEPENS. WE WILL GET OUR FIRST TASTE OF SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY, AS AIR TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE LOW TO MID-90S EACH
DAY AND DEWPOINTS PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID-70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL CLIMB TO ADVISORY LEVELS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT THEY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO DISRUPT THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
MEDIUM-RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE THAT THE FRONT STALLS, KEEPING UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PIVOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID-SOUTH. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, MOVING IN SOUTH TO NORTH. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
TERMINALS AS WE EDGE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING OF OVERALL CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE LOWER END, THEREFORE,
OPTED TO KEEP PROB30S FOR SHRA, TRANSITIONING TO TSRA IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, WITH PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MVFR CIGS COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LARGELY 10 KTS OR LESS OVER THE
NEXT 30 HOURS.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, FURTHER MITIGATING FIRE RISK. EVEN AS
HIGH HEAT RETURNS MID-WEEK, ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH
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