483
FXUS64 KMEG 081117
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
617 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH BY
MID-WEEK.
- DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES CLIMBING ABOVE 100F BY MID-WEEK, LIKELY REQUIRING HEAT
HEADLINES.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS BEEN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS FINALLY WINDING DOWN
AS OF LATE SUNDAY EVENING. WE'LL HAVE A LULL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY STARTS UP EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE 00Z SUITE OF CAMS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER ON A
DECAYING MCS ROTATING ABOUT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATING
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
THE NEXT "WAVE" OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH ALONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND NOON MONDAY, LASTING
THROUGH SUNSET. THIS ISN'T NECESSARILY A FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS
THERE IS ALMOST NO SYNOPTIC SUPPORT THIS FAR SOUTH. IT'S MORE
LIKE A TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL TRANSPORT A MESSY LINE OF
CONVECTION. DCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS IN ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE
INSTABILITY FIELD. THIS IS A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FEATURING MAINLY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON TUESDAY WITH MORE DECAYING CONVECTION
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS, ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
BY MIDWEEK, THINGS START TO DRY OUT AND HEAT UP AS A MIDLEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S - ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST PLACES. RIGHT ON CUE WITH
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER, HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES
LOWER ON TUESDAY, A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT MAY CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO
POOL AND THUS INCREASE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO HEAT ADVISORY
TERRITORY REGARDLESS. ONCE THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN ON
WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES SOAR TO THE POINT WHERE HEAT HEADLINES
MAY BE WARRANTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER WEST TENNESSEE, WITH VCSH
INCLUDED AT MKL FOR THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE RECENT CAMS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT REGARDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND
PROGRESSION, THE HRRR MODEL HAS DEMONSTRATED BETTER PERFORMANCE
WITH UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. CONSEQUENTLY, A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM EAST ARKANSAS INTO WEST
TENNESSEE DURING THE MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS, CONSISTENT WITH
HRRR TIMING. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY ON-STATION
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF
CYCLE WITH GUSTS NEAR UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
JDS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY, FURTHER MITIGATING FIRE RISK. EVEN AS HIGH
HEAT RETURNS MID-WEEK, ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...JDS
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