395
FXUS64 KMEG 091124
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
624 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH LATE WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY, AND
PROLONGED EXTREME CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE ADDITIONAL
HEAT HEADLINES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- RELIEF IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT TO SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS NW
TENNESSEE, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DRY AND HUMID.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN BALMY, DROPPING ONLY A FEW DEGREES
FROM CURRENT UPPER 70S/LOW 80S READINGS. ALOFT, WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS AN MCV ALONG THE KY/MIDDLE TN BORDER,
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH FROM THE WEST,
ESTABLISHING WEAK NW FLOW ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. WHILE HIGH-
RES MODELS SUGGEST REMNANTS OF A KANSAS MCS COULD APPROACH WEST
TN BY TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON, QPF GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT.
CONSEQUENTLY, CONFIDENCE IN THE FLOOD WATCH COVERAGE HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD, THOUGH A 50% THREAT REMAINS.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TUESDAY IS EXCESSIVE HEAT. WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-70S, HEAT INDICES
WILL REACH 105-107F ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. ENSURE VULNERABLE POPULATIONS HAVE ACCESS TO COOLING.
MID-SOUTH WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN AN EARLY-SEASON HEAT WAVE, WITH
LREF GUIDANCE INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS EXCEEDING THE 97TH
PERCENTILE. EXPECT AT LEAST THREE DAYS OF 105F HEAT INDICES FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
FLOW TURNS ZONAL. A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
FRIDAY. WHILE THE EXACT FRONTAL PROGRESSION REMAINS UNCERTAIN,
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND SHOULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE PEAK HEAT
INTENSITY.
AC3
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SHRA/TSRA TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO FIZZLE OUT AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES
FURTHER INTO THE MID-SOUTH. THUS, CONFIDENCE IN ANY TSRA HAS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION FROM TERMINALS.
ADDITIONALLY, A SWATH OF LOW CIGS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH IMPACTS
CURRENTLY TO IFR/LIFR AT TUP. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
SOME SCT MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THROUGH MID-MORNING MAINLY ACROSS
MEM AND MKL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO GO PREVAILING AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE, UP TO AROUND
10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT JBR THROUGH THE DAYTIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY, FURTHER MITIGATING FIRE RISK. EVEN AS HIGH
HEAT RETURNS MID-WEEK, ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ001-007-010-011.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TNZ001>003-019-020-048>052-088-089.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TNZ003-004-021-022-054-055.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...CMA
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