020
FXUS64 KMEG 091722
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1222 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- RELIEF IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
LATEST HI-RES MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. AS A RESULT,
WE HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH EARLY. A FEW STORMS MAY
SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING, BUT THEY WILL BE PROGRESSIVE, AND EXCESSIVE HEAVY
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS, AND THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ALONG
THE KY/TN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE BIGGER STORY IS THE HEAT. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MOSTLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
70S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TODAY, AND ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NECESSARY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. EARLY SEASON HEAT
WAVES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS SINCE WE ARE NOT USED TO THE MID-
SOUTH SUMMER HEAT YET. TAKE PRECAUTIONS THAT INCLUDE STAYING
HYDRATED, WEARING LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING, AND STAYING IN AREAS
WITH AC IF POSSIBLE.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL
TRANSITION THE FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WHILE PUSHING A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE FRONTS WILL
BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HIGH HEAT AS CLOUDS AND RAIN KNOCK
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
VFR AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. SHRA AND TSRA ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUP
WHERE LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. CLEARING SKIES MAY ALLOW FOR A
REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY DUE TO RADIATIONAL FOG. GUIDANCE HAS NOT
PINGED THIS YET, BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR IF CONDITIONS
BECOME FAVORABLE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW, WITH
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN AT JBR.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY, FURTHER MITIGATING FIRE RISK. EVEN AS HIGH
HEAT RETURNS MID-WEEK, ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-
035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ001-007-010-011.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ001>003-019-020-
048>052-088-089.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...DNM
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