023
FXUS64 KMEG 240447
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1147 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL FEATURE SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE
OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
TOMORROW, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF
ANY STORMS. CAMS HAVE SEEMED TO BACK OFF FROM HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING, A REVERSE FROM JUST A FEW RUNS AGO
WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING SHOW AN MCS
OVER THE TX/AR/LA AREA MOVING EAST WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN TX AND CO. MODEL RUNS THAT PRODUCED
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO LINK IT TO OUTFLOW FROM A DECAYING
MCS ORIGINATING FROM KS THAT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY. THEREFORE,
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED FROM EARLIER
TODAY, BUT 1000+ MLCAPE WILL STILL EXIST TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS KEPT THIS COOLER THAN AVERAGE
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BECOME DISLODGED THURSDAY WITH SUBTLE
HEIGHT RISES AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN, AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AROUND ANY BOUNDARIES
FROM PRIOR DAYS' CONVECTION, WHERE MLCAPE WILL EXCEED 1000 J/KG.
ON FRIDAY MUCH OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN THE SAME, ALTHOUGH
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S.
FROM SATURDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST, MOST LONG-
RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF THE UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPING
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST, BRINGING
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH. WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE, HIGHS WILL SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S EARLY NEXT WEEK. NBM GUIDANCE, A WEEK OUT, ALREADY HAS A 50% -
80% CHANCE OF HIGHS REACHING ABOVE 95 DEGREES ON MONDAY, ONLY
INCREASING TUESDAY. SURFACE HUMIDITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE VERY
HIGH WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S, PRODUCING HEAT
INDICES ABOVE 100 F AND POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 110 F. THIS TYPE
OF HEAT IS DANGEROUS AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE NEXT WEEK AS ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE
RIDGE WILL FAIL TO MOVE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK AT THE EARLIEST.
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR THAT MAY LIMIT THE
SEVERITY OF THE HEAT IN SOME LOCATIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE OR IMPACT IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
THE LATEST HRRR HAS SIGNIFICANTLY TRENDED DRIER FOR TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW, ALIGNING WITH THE FV3 IN KEEPING PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF MEM. CONSEQUENTLY, THE PROB GROUP WAS REMOVED AT MEM,
THOUGH VCSH AND OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CEILINGS WERE RETAINED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT TUP DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED DURING ON-STATION
CONVECTION. WINDS WILL TREND SOUTHERLY AT 3-7 KTS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF CYCLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
RECENT WETTING RAINS WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. MINRH VALUES ABOVE 40% AND DAILY BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...JDS
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