915
FXUS64 KMEG 251132 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
632 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEPENDING ON WHERE STORMS SET
UP, A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT COULD EXIST EACH AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING.
- THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE SUMMERTIME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY.
- HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS
STARTING SATURDAY THAT WILL LAST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
A COOL EVENING CURRENTLY PRESENTS ITSELF WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 80 F ACROSS THE REGION AMIDST VERY HUMID AIR
CONSISTING OF DEWPOINTS AT OR ABOVE 70 F. THE RESULTING HIGH
THETA E FROM THIS AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
1000 - 2000 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A WEAK, CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, SEEN AS AN AREA OF LOW REFLECTIVITY TRAVELLING INTO THE
REGION FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS, HAS MANAGED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST UPPER
AIR PROFILES INDICATE PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2.00" WILL BE PRESENT
WITH SKINNY, TALL CAPE PROFILES. THEREFORE, THE SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING ONLY
GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, PWATS OF THIS LEVEL (99TH+ PERCENTILE) WILL
BRING A THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK. STORMS
ARE EXHIBITING A TENDENCY TO PROPAGATE UPWIND AND BECOME ROUGHLY
STATIONARY, WHICH MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE THIS FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
CAMS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WILL FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS THIS SAME SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAS VARIED FROM
RUN-TO-RUN.
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY, THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE HAS RAIN LIMITED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE FURTHER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WEAK, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S, WHICH WILL MARK THE BEGINNINGS OF A WARMING
TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AS DIURNAL HEATING
BRINGS MLCAPE BACK ABOVE 1000 J/KG, POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS
2000 J/KG. CAMS KEEP THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LOW THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION, BUT HAVE CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT A DECAYING
MCS INTO NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, AND
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL UNDERGO A DRAMATIC SHIFT
FRIDAY AND INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL
GIVE WAY TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS STARTING LATE FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY, THE RIDGE WILL
PARK DIRECTLY OVER THE MID-SOUTH AT A STAGGERING 594 DM AND WILL
REMAIN IN THIS POSITION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING AT A SIMILAR STRENGTH,
ALTHOUGH MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST, THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGHS WILL SOAR AS A CONSEQUENCE WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME,
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS ABOVE 70 F,
LEADING TO TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. HEAT
HEADLINES MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IF
THIS TREND HOLDS WHERE FORECASTS CALL FOR HEAT INDICES BETWEEN
105 - 110 F THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WHAT IS YET TO
BE SEEN IS THE COVERAGE OF ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION, WHICH COULD
MUTE THE MAGNITUDE OF AFTERNOON HIGHS. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN
MEETING THE AFOREMENTIONED AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES, BUT
REGARDLESS, PREPARE FOR A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS HEAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS TIMING AND PROBABILITIES OF TSRA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE PAST FEW NIGHTS HAVE SEEN PERSISTENT
CORRIDORS OF TSRA EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
ARKLAMISS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT CAM
GUIDANCE REMAINS VARIED WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION AND TIMING. THAT
SAID, 06Z HREF AND REFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE JOINTLY INDICATE AN
UPTICK OF TSRA CHANCES AT JBR AND MEM IN THE EARLY AND LATE
EVENING, RESPECTIVELY. IN THE INTERIM, ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BUT WITH HOURLY PROBABILITIES BELOW
10 PERCENT, THE 12Z TAFS WILL FORGO MENTION OF TSRA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
RECENT WETTING RAINS WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 40%
AND DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB
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