301
FXUS64 KMEG 261201 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
701 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL, ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
AND WILL BE MOST COMMON OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
- THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY.
- HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS STARTING SATURDAY
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY AND EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE ISOLATED, HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY A RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS DUE TO DECAYING CONVECTION FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS. AS SUCH, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
PRESENCE OF 1000 - 2000 J/KG MLCAPE. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE AS SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE FAILS TO REMOVE MUCH OF THE CAPE THAT EXISTS OVERNIGHT.
ALOFT, WEAK ZONAL WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WHERE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN. BY MID
AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY WILL RISE BACK TO 2000+ J/KG MLCAPE WITH
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE REGION ALONG WHERE THE PERTURBATIONS WILL BE THE
STRONGEST. HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR, LEADING TO DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT, WHICH IS COVERED BY A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5)
RISK FROM SPC. ON THE OTHER HAND, PWATS WILL BE AROUND 2.00"
WHERE STORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE THE GREATEST, LEADING TO
AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE QUICKLY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ENOUGH
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO WARRANT ANOTHER MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE, MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. BUT THE MAIN STORY FROM THIS POINT WILL BE THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT THAT WILL BUILD IN NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE REACHES
AT OR ABOVE 594 DM. ON SATURDAY, HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AS HIGH AS 100 F AREA-WIDE. THIS HEAT ONLY GETS WORSE MONDAY AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH PEAK DAILY HEAT INDICES ABOVE
105 F AT LEAST. IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS, HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THAT DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S EACH DAY, ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT COULD LIMIT THE EXTENT TO WHICH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WOULD REACH. THESE ARE DETAILS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RESOLVED AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. LOOKING BEYOND THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BE HERE TO STAY, KEEPING THIS HEAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AND LIKELY INTO THE NEXT UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
TSRA CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL THIS MORNING, BEHIND A COMPACT
CONVECTIVELY- ENHANCED MESO LOW TRACKING EAST ALONG THE TN/KY
BORDER, SOUTH OF PAH. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED UPPER LOWS
WERE NOTED EAST OF SGF AND SOUTHEAST OF OKC JUST PRIOR TO 12Z.
BOTH FEATURES WERE MOVING EAST AND MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE TSRA
DEVELOPMENT WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
06Z REFS AND HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY TSRA CORRIDOR
WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER, INTO SOUTHWEST KY
AND FAR NORTHWEST TN. THE REFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
TSRA CORRIDOR, BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT A PROB30 IS WARRANTED
FOR THE MEM TAF AT THIS TIME. THIS MAY CHANGE PENDING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS OVER AR LATER THIS MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
DUE TO RECENT WETTING RAINS AND SATURATED SOILS. DAILY ROUNDS OF
POP-UP SHOWERS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAYING ABOVE
40% WILL FURTHER LIMIT ANY RISKS. HOWEVER, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB
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