838
FXUS64 KMEG 270450
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1150 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY,
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. POTENTIAL
HAZARDS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE MID-SOUTH.
- A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT, DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN
THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S STARTING
SUNDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS
BEGINNING SATURDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR HEAT-RELATED
PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY DISPLAY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS OF FRIDAY EVENING BENEATH WEAK WESTERLIES
ALOFT. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN MISSOURI,
EXTENDING EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH TONIGHT, KICKING OFF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, CAMS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PUSHED THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH ALONG
WITH A CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN WEST TENNESSEE. CAMS KEEP THE
BOUNDARY'S MOVEMENT SOUTH QUITE SLOW, WHICH IN CONJUNCTION TO
PWATS AROUND 2.00" AND ~2000 J/KG MLCAPE WOULD LEAD TO A
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, CAMS
ARE STILL A BIT "JUMPY", BOUNCING BETWEEN SOLUTIONS EVERY RUN,
LEADING TO SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITIONING OF THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS HONED IN ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TO SEE AT LEAST 1 - 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 7 A.M. CDT SUNDAY FOR FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL. MEANWHILE, THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOSTLY DRY WITH HOT, MUGGY CONDITIONS PRODUCING HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 F.
THE ZONAL FLOW TO OUR NORTH WILL GIVE WAY TO A LARGE, AMPLIFIED
RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 594 DM HEIGHTS
APPEARING OVER THE REGION ON MOST GUIDANCE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S STARTING SUNDAY. WITH NO MEANINGFUL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH SATURDAY'S CONVECTION, THE HUMIDITY THAT HAS PLAGUED THE
REGION THIS PAST WEEK WILL UNFORTUNATELY ALSO REMAIN. THEREFORE,
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB WELL PAST 100 F
SUNDAY, LASTING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY,
PEAK HEAT INDICES MAX OUT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BETWEEN
105 AND 110 F. AT THESE LEVELS, HEAT ADVISORIES ARE TO BE
EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY, LASTING JUST AS LONG AS THE HEAT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
LASTLY, GUIDANCE HAS DEVELOPED AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT TRAVELS
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY, THESE MODELS BRING THE FEATURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS,
CLOUDS, OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE LEVEL
OF HEATING THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED FOR
HEAT HEADLINES DECREASES TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER MAY STILL BE SPARSE ENOUGH IN SOME
AREAS TO ALLOW FOR 105+ F HEAT INDICES TO CONTINUE.THESE DETAILS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER RESOLVED IN THE COMING DAYS.
REGARDLESS, EXPECT OPPRESSIVE HEAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
REMNANTS OF AN MCV MAY INITIATE A FEW SHRAS AT JBR AND MKL DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT PREVAILING GROUPS, SO
PROB30S ARE UTILIZED. DAYTIME HEATING WILL SPARK A SECONDARY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT JBR AND MKL. COVERAGE WILL
BE ISOLATED AND HARD TO PINPOINT, SO A SECONDARY PROB30 FOR TSRA
WAS CARRIED. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAYTIME HOURS.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS WEEKEND TO
RECENT WETTING RAINS AND SATURATED SOILS. HOT AND PRECIPITATION-
FREE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 40 PERCENT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ARZ009-018.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ001>004-019>022.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...DNM
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