926
FXUS64 KMEG 281119 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
619 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AT LEAST 105 DEGREES ACROSS MOST
OF THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
SEE VALUES EXCEED 105 DEGREES.
- DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
A PLEASANT, ALBEIT MUGGY AND HUMID OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO EXIT
THE AREA. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
MOVE ALONG THE I-24 CORRIDOR EAST OF OUR AREA, WITH LITTLE TO NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DECREASE MY CONFIDENCE IN ANY REAL FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH SOME PROBABILITIES STILL HIGHLIGHT THE REMAINING FLOOD
WATCH COUNTIES HAVING AROUND A 10 TO 20% OF REACHING FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE CONTINUED FLUCTUATIONS, WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE FOR OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE TN/KY
LINE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, THINK THE
BEST THREAT SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE MID-
SOUTH. OTHERWISE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY SUNRISE.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, MAINTAINING ITS HOLD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MID-SOUTH DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FAIRLY QUICKLY
TOMORROW, WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE VERY MUGGY LOW TO MID 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL
RISE TO AROUND OR ABOVE 105 FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-SOUTH.
FOR THIS REASON, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST MS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD THROUGH THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK, EXPECT DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACHING AT LEAST 105 DEGREES FOR MOST. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME
DAILY FLUCTUATIONS OF WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED
110 DEGREES, GIVEN THE DAILY CHANCES AND THIS BEING OUR FIRST
PROLONGED HEAT WAVE OF THE SUMMER, AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
TRANSITIONED TO EITHER AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING OR A HEAT ADVISORY
WITH THE NEXT FULL FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH ANY PROLONGED HEAT
WAVE, BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN
THE SHADE OR AC, AVOID STRENUOUS ACTIVITY DURING PEAK HEATING IN
THE AFTERNOONS, AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS WHO MAY
BE SENSITIVE TO THESE CONDITIONS.
BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WELL
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE EXTENT.
ENS GUIDANCE HAS A SLIGHT MORE EASTWARD JOG IN THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME
PRECIPITATION TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND COULD LOWER DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. ON THE OTHER HAND, GEFS GUIDANCE
FAVORS KEEPING THE HIGH IN PLACE, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 90S. AS SUCH, KEEPING
THE CURRENT EXTREME HEAT WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE THE
BEST SOLUTION, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES COULD BE NEEDED
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CONSIDERING THE MAJORITY OF JUNE HAS AVERAGED
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL, IT LOOKS LIKE OUR OPPRESSIVE
SUMMERTIME HEAT IS HERE TO STAY FOR THE TIME BEING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS, UNDER AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST, WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN A BUMP IN WIND
SPEEDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WHILE THE NEXT CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS LIKELY WILL NOT BE
UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK, MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
40 PERCENT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
MOZ113-115.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
MSZ001>012-020.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...PWB
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