266
FXUS64 KMEG 291127 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
627 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- DANGEROUS AND OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 105 TO 109 DEGREES INTO TUESDAY.
SOME LOCATIONS MAY REACH OR EXCEED 110 DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE TO
END OF THIS WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY
COOLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES SPANNING THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
UNDER CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, ONLY DIPPING TO THE MID 70S BY
MONDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY, OUR HEAT
WAVE WE HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES WILL
REALLY BEGIN TO RAMP UP. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY, DRIVING THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH ESSENTIALLY THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 90S TOMORROW, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES LIKELY REACHING ABOVE 105 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
SUCH, THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER THE
ENTIRE MID-SOUTH. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO OUR DEW POINT TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON, WHICH
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE PEAK HEAT INDICES THAT WE SEE. SOME
GUIDANCE WANTS LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-
40 CORRIDOR TO REACH 110, WHICH WOULD REACH OUR EXTREME HEAT
WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER, HREF PROBABILITIES KEEP THESE
LOCATIONS AT ONLY AROUND A 10-20% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. GIVEN THE
LACK OF CONFIDENCE, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE
FOR NOW. A SIMILAR STORY WILL UNFOLD ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. IF
UPGRADES TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED, IT WOULD
LIKELY BE ACROSS THE MS DELTA, EASTERN AR, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL,
AND PORTIONS OF WEST TN.
BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE REGION SO FAR WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO DRIFT EASTWARD EVEN THOUGH THE PARENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN WELL IN PLACE. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW PLACES
WANTING TO PUSH CLOSER TO 100. HOWEVER, LREF GUIDANCE THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD DOES SHOW THAT THESE VALUES WOULD BE ON THE
UPPER END OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE SLIGHT EASTWARD JOG OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE, THIS COULD ALLOW FOR DAILY, DIURNAL DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO RETURN IN THE AFTERNOONS. TYPICALLY WHEN THIS OCCURS,
THIS WILL LIMIT THE HIGHER END OF OUR TEMPERATURES, LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT MOST MAY STAY CLOSER TO THE MID 90S. NONETHELESS,
OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY NEED FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAT HEADLINES TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE DOES HAVE THIS RIDGE FINALLY BREAKING DOWN INTO NEXT
WEEK, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS ARE HERE TO STAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS UNDER HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, A PRESSURE AXIS WILL EXTEND
FROM LA THROUGH MIDDLE TN. RESULTING IN PREVAILING SSW WINDS
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS UPCOMING WEEK
AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-
035-036-048-049-058.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ001>012-020.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MSZ013>017-021>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...PWB
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