068
FXUS64 KMEG 300535
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1235 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- DANGEROUS AND OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 105 TO 109 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY REACH OR EXCEED 110 DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE TO END
OF THIS WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY
COOLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
A RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE MID-SOUTH WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED, WITH
TEMPERATURES SPANNING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE, ONLY DIPPING TO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. THINGS WILL RAPIDLY WARM UP FOLLOWING SUNRISE WITH
YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WEEK HAVE UNDERPERFORMED A BIT, WITH
TEMPERATURES "ONLY" REACHING THE LOW 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THIS DOES RAISE SOME QUESTIONS FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY, WHICH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. NONETHELESS, EVEN IF TEMPERATURES WERE TO UNDERPERFORM
A BIT, STILL BELIEVE A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA WILL GET CLOSE
TO OR EXCEED 105 DEGREES, SO HAVE CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH. CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION IF YOU
MUST BE OUTSIDE FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME, TAKE PLENTY OF BREAKS
IN SHADED AREAS, AND STAY HYDRATED.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN DRIVING OUR HEAT WAVE THIS WEEK
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FURTHER EAST BY MIDWEEK INTO THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO RETURN
TO THE AREA AND MAY KICK OFF SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE BACK HALF OF
THE WEEK, EXPECT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (15-30%) CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME VARIETY, WITH A
STRONG STORM OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WITH THE
POTENTIAL UPTICK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION, THIS COULD PLAY SPOILER
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. NONETHELESS,
GIVEN THE SPORADIC NATURE, WILL CONTINUE ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING 105 IF
NOT 110. A BREAK FROM THIS PATTERN LIKELY WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH SPECIFICS ARE STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH
NOTABLE SPREAD AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS UPCOMING WEEK
AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-
035-036-048-049-058.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...AC3
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