143
FXUS64 KMEG 141735
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1235 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A LOCALIZED RISK FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING.
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, POTENTIALLY
REQUIRING HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THE DELTA REGION.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A CUTOFF LOW NEAR MERIDIAN, MS, AND A HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE DRIVING AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH. EXPECT PERSISTENT CLOUDS, SHOWERS, AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(PWATS) EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. WHILE A FORMAL
FLOOD WATCH ISN'T NEEDED, EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR LOW-WATER
CROSSINGS AND STREAMS DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING DOWNPOURS.
THURSDAY'S FORECAST IS TRENDING WETTER AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS
AND THE LOW SHIFTS WEST, ESTABLISHING A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECT SCATTERED, DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (40-
60% PROBABILITY) ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES IN, LEADING TO HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW-TO-MID 90S. WITH HEAT
INDICES EXPECTED TO HIT 105 F OR HIGHER, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
DELTA, HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR NEXT WEEK. WHILE SOME MODELS
SUGGEST OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS, OTHERS INDICATE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HIGH TEMPERATURES
DUE TO POTENTIAL SHIFTS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND NORTHERN
TROUGH PLACEMENT. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SIGNIFICANT (4-6 DEGREES),
MAKING THE EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURE/HEAT FORECAST UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR TUP, WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVEL WEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
CIGS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND THIS FEATURE
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT TUP/MEM/MKL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL DROP TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT AND MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS AMPLE
MOISTURE AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...JAB
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