824
FXUS64 KMEG 151709
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1209 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES RETURN THIS WEEKEND. HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND CLOUDY SKIES COVER THE REGION AT THIS
HOUR DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGHING
TO OUR EAST. LZK AND OHX MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW ZONAL TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PRESENT, WHICH HAS KEPT LAPSE RATES STABLE. IN
ACCORDANCE WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BEGINNING
TO TAKE OVER AS OF 10 AM. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
TO STEEPEN SLIGHTLY, AND ENHANCE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PULSE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND POOR WIND
PROFILES ALOFT WILL PROHIBIT INTENSE UPDRAFTS FROM DEVELOPING IN
ANY AGITATED CUMULUS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND THREATEN HEAVY
RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. PW VALUES (ALSO
FROM LZK AND OHX MORNING SOUNDINGS) ARE OVER 2" MAKING THESE
STORMS EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THEY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED,
LIMITING A FLOODING CONCERN, BUT HEFTY DOWNPOURS OVER AN
URBANIZED/LOW LYING AREA COULD CAUSE A BRIEF DISRUPTION ON THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE. AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD THAT COULD OCCUR
TO MOTORISTS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING IS FOG. WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT.
PROBABILITIES FROM THE HREF FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/2 MILE
ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH SOME
PATCHY AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG PERCENTAGES ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. IF THIS SOLUTION PLAYS OUT, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WILL BE WARRANTED, PARTICULARLY FROM 4 AM THROUGH AT LEAST 8 AM.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS RETURN FLOW
CONTINUES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CREEP BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 0.50"
OF PRECIPITATION OR MORE RANGE FROM 20-50% THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE PROBABILITIES TAPER OFF QUICKLY WITH A 10% CHANCE
OR LESS TO RECEIVE 1.00" OR MORE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE
IN EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, WHICH WOULD BE BENEFICIAL FOR
ONGOING D3 DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
THE WEEKEND FORECAST BECOMES A BIT UNCERTAIN AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO POORLY RESOLVE THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HOW FAR SOUTH
IT WILL SINK. A CLEARER SIGNAL IS THE PRESENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE THE REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES. DUE TO THE POOR AGREEMENT,
AND INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR NORTHWEST FLOW, NBM MAX TEMPERATURES
DISPLAY AN 8-10 DEGREE SPREAD FROM THE 25TH PERCENTILE TO THE
75TH PERCENTILE. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION, BUT WILL VARY BASED ON AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT HEADLINES WILL BE
CONSIDERED AS TIME NEARS AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THOUGH
ISOLATED, THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
NORTHERN REGIONS WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST. WHILE AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A PATTERN SHIFT AS A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE COULD OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DNM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH 01Z, GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING NEAR/AFTER SUNSET. COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT TEMPOS AT MEM/JBR, WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY FARTHER
EAST. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING AND WILL GENERALLY
BECOME VFR AREA WIDE OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT, BUT MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST ALONG AND NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT, MAINLY
AFFECTING MKL/JBR. THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO CARRY IN THE MEM
TAF AT THIS TIME.
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MOST LIKELY AT
MKL AND JBR. FOG COULD BE DENSE IN PLACES, SO WE'LL BE MONITORING
THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP AT MKL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS AMPLE
MOISTURE AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES PERSIST.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...MJ
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