116
FXUS64 KMEG 162345 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
645 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES RETURN THIS WEEKEND. HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- A PATTERN CHANGE IS INDICATED ON LONG RANGE GUIDANCE, PRODUCING
VARIABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE IGNITING A
FEW SHOWERS ON ITS BACKSIDE. LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR, AND LIMITED
HEATING HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR DUE TO DENSE FOG AND THICK STRATUS.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT EXCEED 90 ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES,
WHICH WILL SUPPRESS INSTABILITY VALUES. ANY AREA THAT DOES
RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY STAY A BIT
MORE ELEVATED WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, BUT
PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG COULD BE HAZARDOUS TO MOTORISTS.
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CLEAR
THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND AS WELL AS INCREASING MOISTURE. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL EMERGE AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
TYPICAL, PULSE-LIKE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. WHILE PULSE CONVECTION IS HARD TO PIN DOWN, THE MOST
LIKELY AFFECTED LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
AND NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCER, WITH PW VALUES NEAR/EXCEEDING
2". WE ARE STILL EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION
WITHIN ANY STORM AS THEY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE, BUT FLOW WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALOFT AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM EMERGES OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GENERALLY, THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL FOR THIS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. WHILE THE NORTHERN ZONES ARE
MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY THE SHORTWAVE FOR PRECIPITATION, IT
WILL KEEP IT A BIT COOLER UP THERE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE LOWER 90S WITH SOUTHERN AREAS CLIMBING TO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S. AS TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE CLIMB, TRIPLE-DIGIT
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO EMERGE. PROBABILITIES OF REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 105F APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE LOCAL TO THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY,
PROBABILITIES BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE AND WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THE PRESENCE OF SHORTWAVE PASSAGES AND WILL BE
EVALUATED DAILY. PREPARE FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN EXCESS OF 100F,
BUT MAY NOT REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EMERGE BEHIND THE TROPICAL LOW AND
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH FROM SUNDAY ONWARD AS TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST REGION. THE TROUGH DOES HAVE A
COLD FRONT AND WILL ATTEMPT TO SINK IT SOUTH BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAY BE TOO MUCH. THE POOR
AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN
A WIDESPREAD ARRAY OF TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME, PREPARE FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DNM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
AFTER SEVERAL ACTIVE DAYS OF DAYTIME TSRA AND NIGHTTIME IFR, A
RELATIVELY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 30 HOURS. NBM-DERIVED HOURLY MVFR VIS PROBABILITIES PEAK
AROUND 20 PERCENT AT MKL, WHICH IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR A TEMPO
MENTION, GIVEN THE LOCAL FOG CLIMATOLOGY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT MIDSOUTH TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH. WETTING RAIN CHANCES
WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB
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