097
FXUS64 KMEG 181357
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
857 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 856 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL
PEAK BETWEEN 105 AND 108 F. THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE
COOLING OR AIR CONDITIONING WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.
- HIGH HEAT WILL RAMP UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
- MANY AREAS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER, ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY AS
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 856 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
THE MID-SOUTH WILL SHIFT INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THIS
WEEKEND AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EMERGES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST IN AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE NBM CONTINUES
TO PAINT AREAS OF 105 DEGREE HEAT INDICES WITHIN THE MID-SOUTH
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
KEEPS APPARENT TEMPERATURES BELOW THIS THRESHOLD, NEGATING THE
NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. THERE ARE NO PLANS AT THIS TIME FOR ANY
HEAT HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS
MORE DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT WARMING AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERS OVER THE MID-SOUTH. GEFS, GEPS, AND ENS
SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER
90S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OUR ADVICE FOR THOSE THAT MUST BE OUTSIDE
DURING THIS TIME IS TO HYDRATE FREQUENTLY AND TAKE PLENTY OF
BREAKS. HEAT REMAINS THE NUMBER ONE CAUSE OF WEATHER-RELATED
FATALITIES IN THE UNITED STATES, SO STAY INFORMED AND LEARN THE
SIGNS OF HEAT ILLNESS.
BY MIDWEEK, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-
SOUTH. HOWEVER, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DUE TO ENSEMBLES
STRUGGLING WITH THE PRECISE PLACEMENT OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. IF THIS DISTURBANCE TREKS MORE NORTHERLY, THE MID-SOUTH
WILL EXPERIENCE MINIMAL RELIEF WITH HIGHS ONLY DECREASING TO THE
MID 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE COOLER OPTION WILL
MANIFEST IF THE UPPER LOW TREKS OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. DUE TO THESE
INCONSISTENCIES, THE NBM CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A 7 DEGREE SPREAD
AMONGST THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION OCCURS, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.
ANS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. REMOVED CONVECTIVE
MENTIONS FOR JBR AND MKL AS PROBABILITIES REMAIN BELOW 30%.
EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 856 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS AMPLE MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND 20FT WINDS STAY BELOW 10 MPH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MSZ007-010-011-020.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JDS
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