561
FXUS64 KMEG 191735
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 9PM WHERE HEAT
INDICES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 105 AND 109 F. THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO
ADEQUATE COOLING OR AIR CONDITIONING WILL BE THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
- THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DELTA REGION WITH A HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS THE
REST OF THE MID-SOUTH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- THE HEAT WAVE BEGINS TO DAMPEN WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH, DROPPING HEAT INDICES BELOW 100F FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
ANOTHER RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST TODAY AS HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS COASTLINE, CONTINUES TO BROADEN
NORTHWEST AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 PROCEEDS TO CHURN NEAR THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE PLACED US, HERE IN THE
MID-SOUTH, UNDER VERY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST. THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH CURRENT PWATS IN THE
1.8-2.2" RANGE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL SPAN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S WARRANTING A HEAT ADVISORY
THAT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 9PM THIS EVENING FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
AND WEST TENNESSEE. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS, PERSISTENT
MOISTURE, AND PEAK DAYTIME HEATING, WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT POP-
UP SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TOMORROW AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
BROADENS AND NEARLY CENTERS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO PERSIST KEEPING OUR DEWPOINTS HIGH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AREAWIDE. AREAS IN THE DELTA REGION WILL SEE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WARRANTING THE ISSUANCE OF AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING IN THESE AREAS WHILE THE REST OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL
BE UNDER A HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW AND TUESDAY. ONE THING TO NOTE:
NBM IS CURRENTLY PAINTING HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 110+ F FOR
MANY AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE
NBM CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS IN THESE AREAS. BOTH THE HEAT
ADVISORY AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING WITH LITTLE TO NO RELIEF OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BROADEN EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INCREASING OUR HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH. SOME AREAS COULD
EVEN SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100S, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND IN THE DELTA REGIONS. THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH AND POTENTIALLY
FURTHER EAST FOR TUESDAY. BE SURE TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM
THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND CHECK IN ON LOVED ONES OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.
LUCKILY, RELIEF WILL BE ON ITS WAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIP SOUTH FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS PUSHING US FURTHER INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
ALOFT AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BACK WEST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH DECREASING
TEMPERATURES TO MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS FOR JULY. AS THIS FRONT
BEGINS TO DIP DOWN, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS DRAWN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE FOR MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING INTO POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. WE'RE A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT STORM MODE,
LREF JOINT PROBS ARE HINTING AT AROUND A 45-60% CHANCE FOR
EFFECTIVE SHEAR >25 KTS AND SBCAPE > 1200 J/KG IN THIS AREA. FOR
RIGHT NOW, THERE EXISTS A CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARY CONCERN OF DAMAGING WINDS.
MOVING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WE'RE LOOKING WET AND
UNSETTLED AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS, THOUGH FOR RIGHT NOW,
HEAT REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
AEH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE REGION AROUND 00Z. THIS COULD INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SO PROB30S WERE RETAINED AT JBR AND MKL. THE
FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN COVERAGE NEAR THE MEM TERMINAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT TUP
MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW. BR COULD DEVELOP AT MKL FROM SATURATED SOILS AND
CALM WINDS, SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN CASE
VISIBILITY BEGINS TO TANK.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS AMPLE MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND 20FT WINDS STAY BELOW 10 MPH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-
035-036-048-049-058.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ009-
018-026>028-035-036.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
ARZ048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ113-
115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ001-007-008-
010>012-020.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MSZ001>006-008-009-012>017-021>024.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MSZ007-010-011-020.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-019-020-
048>051-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...DNM
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