204
FXUS64 KMEG 031138
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
638 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO 90S BY
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING
HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 105 BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE PRIMARY SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS ON FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ERODING MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK (~6,000 FT), CURRENT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 3-
6 DEGREES SUGGEST A NARROWING WINDOW FOR SATURATION. CONFIDENCE
IN WIDESPREAD FOG REMAINS LOW DUE TO A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT WEST-
TO-EAST PRESSURE GRADIENT, LIKELY MAINTAINING LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY,
EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN CONFINED TO SHELTERED VALLEYS
WHERE DECOUPLING IS MOST PROBABLE.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH, ESPECIALLY FOR AUGUST STANDARDS, IS
ORIENTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN
GULF. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MILD
TEMPERATURES, CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN WE EXPERIENCED OVER THE
WEEKEND. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WERE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH. A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS TODAY, SHUNTING THE TROUGH EAST, BECOMING POSITIONED OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
BY MIDWEEK, THE RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND TRANSITION ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, INITIATING A WARMING TREND WITH LOW TO
MID-90S EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH ONLY MARGINAL
RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) RETURNING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
PATCHY FOG NEAR MKL MAY RESULT IN TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST 2 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE AREA. LIGHT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO N/NW AT 7-10 KTS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AGAIN BY THIS EVENING. KEPT AMD NOT SKED IN FOR TUP DUE TO
OCCASIONAL MISSING OBSERVATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MINRH
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40%, WITH 20FT WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING
AT TO BELOW 10 MPH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...CJC
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