379
FXUS64 KMEG 031717
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1217 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
- SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
BEFORE TRENDING WARMER AND MORE HUMID BY THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO 90S BY
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING
HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 105 BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE TROUGHING HAS BECOME A BIT LESS ROBUST IN
ANTICIPATION OF A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
REGION. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CLOUD COVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES UNTIL IT GRADUALLY RETROGRADES NORTHEASTERLY.
WHILE WE REMAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING CUT-OFF LOW,
BENIGN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. AS THE LOW TO
OUR EAST BECOMES DISPLACED, WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EMERGE ON
WEDNESDAY RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GET A BIT STRONGER ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UPWARDS AND TRANSPORT MOISTURE. CONCURRENT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WEAK
TROUGHING WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DAMPEN
OUR NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
LINGERING DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK HOT AND
HUMID, BUT NOTHING UNSEASONABLY WARM. PROBABILITIES OF HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXCEEDING 105F (HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA) REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE MS DELTA REGION AND CONTINUE TO LESSEN ELSEWHERE
GEOGRAPHICALLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW BROAD OR DEEP THE
TROUGH WILL EMERGE, WHICH WILL HEAVILY INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND. FOR NOW, A 20-40% POP WAS CARRIED FOR
THE MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
DNM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG AT MKL LATE
TONIGHT. N/NW WINDS AT 6-8 KTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN BY
THIS EVENING. KEPT AMD NOT SKED IN FOR TUP DUE TO ASOS ISSUES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MINRH
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40%, WITH 20FT WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING
AT TO BELOW 10 MPH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...SJM
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