298
FXUS64 KMEG 040433
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1133 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER THROUGH THURSDAY
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
- A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH BY FRIDAY AND OVERSPREAD THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK, BUT HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS ARE
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US HAS FINALLY SHIFTED FAR
ENOUGH EAST AS TO HAVE LOST ITS INFLUENCE ON THE MID-SOUTH. AS A
RESULT, WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE RETURNED TO THE
REGION.
A RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY, SHUNTING THE
TROUGH EAST. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S
TO LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES.
TOMORROW, THE RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND TRANSITION ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, INITIATING A WARMING TREND WITH LOW TO
MID-90S EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH ONLY MARGINAL
RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) RETURNING BY FRIDAY.
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT LOOKS HOT AND HUMID, BUT NOTHING
UNSEASONABLY WARM. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK A BIT, BUT INCREASING
HUMIDITY WILL BOOST HEAT INDICES NONETHELESS. HEAT INDEX VALUES
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
MS DELTA REGION, SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW
BROAD OR DEEP THE TROUGH WILL EMERGE, WHICH WILL HEAVILY
INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND. FOR NOW, A
20-40% POP WAS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AIRSPACE AS WE SIT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FOG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT AT MKL/TUP WITH CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN 7KTS OR LESS OVER THE
NEXT 30 HOURS. KEPT AMD NOT SKED IN FOR TUP DUE TO ONGOING ASOS
ISSUES.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MINRH
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40%, WITH 20FT WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING
AT TO BELOW 10 MPH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...AEH
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