445
FXUS64 KMEG 050450
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER AFTER MIDWEEK,
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WELL. HEAT INDICES WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH BY FRIDAY AND OVERSPREAD THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AS A WEAKENING RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE A CUTOFF LOW OVER NORTHEAST
GEORGIA KEEPS THE DEEP SOUTH SEASONABLY COOL, THE RIDGE HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND LOCALLY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID-90S AFTER WEDNESDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FLOW
WILL PUSH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY, DRIVING HEAT
INDICES INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
AND EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF MEMPHIS, MAY
APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105F) ON THURSDAY.
A WEAK TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY FRIDAY, THOUGH GUIDANCE LIMITS POPS TO
AROUND 30%, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40. WHILE THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER MAY SLIGHTLY CURB SATURDAY'S
TEMPERATURES, ELEVATED HUMIDITY WILL MAINTAIN TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT
INDICES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST, SUNDAY LOOKS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER, MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. THE THREAT OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MEM AND JBR. MKL AND TUP HAVE THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. ANY FOG SHOULD ERODE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD, GENERALLY
REMAINING 7 KTS OR LESS.
KTUP REMAINS AMD NOT SKED DUE TO ONGOING COMMUNICATION ISSUES.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40%, WITH
20 FT WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 MPH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...DNM
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