421
FXUS64 KMEG 060425
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1125 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
- SUMMER HEAT HAS RETURNED TO THE MID-SOUTH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 90S FOR THE NEXT WEEK. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY FOR THE DELTA REGION.
- A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH BY FRIDAY AND OVERSPREAD THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 9 PM SHOWS REMNANTS OF A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
NORTHERN GEORGIA. WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON THE MID-
SOUTH WHICH KEPT SKIES CLEAR AND ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLIER IN THE DAY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, AND WILL COOL
NICELY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH THE COMING
DAYS AND CONTINUE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS WELL, AND
BRING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE DELTA REGION
TOMORROW AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD GEOGRAPHICALLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES, HEAT HEADLINES ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. A HEAT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY IN THE DELTA, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS HI-RES
GUIDANCE COMES INTO VIEW.
WEAK TROUGHING WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
RESULTING CLOUD COVER MAY TEMPER TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES
SLIGHTLY, THOUGH EXACT IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE EXACT PATH
OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD AND ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST
BEGINNING SUNDAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER
THIS REGIME WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE REGION IS NO STRANGER TO HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER, BE SURE TO HYDRATE EARLY AND PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY
GUIDELINES AS WE RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
DNM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT
SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE
REGION. DAYTIME WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, 6 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 3KTS OR LESS TOMORROW NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AS NO SIGNIFICANT METEOROLOGICAL OBSTRUCTIONS
TO VISIBILITY OR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
DEAD 10-HR FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS LOW AND IS ANTICIPATED TO FALL
NEAR 10% FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 FOR THURSDAY, AUGUST
6. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
40% AND 20 FT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY IN FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JDS
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