785
FXUS64 KMEG 061701
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1201 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- SUMMER HEAT WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 90S FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MS RIVER DELTA
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH BY FRIDAY AND OVERSPREAD THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
RECENT SATELLITE OBS SHOW AN ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEGINNING
TO STALL ACROSS FAR NE AR, MO BOOTHEEL AND NW TN. BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY NE WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
PROVIDE NO REAL RELIEF FROM SUMMER HEAT. A TRANSIENT SHOWER COULD
FORM ALONG OR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OR RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
THE PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE USHERING
IN WARMER TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DRAWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SWAMPY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT IN THE MS RIVER
DELTA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND FURTHER HEAT PRODUCTS INTO THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WILL BE ON THE TABLE.
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND COULD HELP LIMIT SOME OF THE HEAT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PHASE WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE SHOULD HELP
DRIVE POPS AS IT GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO HIGH PRESSURES SYSTEMS
SIEGING THE FA. AFTER THIS WEAK SYSTEM AND POPS LOOK TO BE LIMITED
TO ANY AFTERNOON SUMMER-TIME POPUPS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA, W/ VFR
CONDNS PREVAILING THRU THE PD. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS NOTED MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH THE MS RIVER VALLEY, W/ INTERMITTENT BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS POSSIBLE AT AREAL TERMINALS IN THE WAKE. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN
MINIMAL THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE TO
NOTE OVERNIGHT AFTER DIURNAL CU DISSIPATES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
LOWEST RH VALUES OF AT OR BELOW 40TH PERCENTILE REMAIN SOUTH OF
I-40 ACROSS N MS. A RETURN TO STHRLY FLOW FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TO
RAISE MIN RHS BACK ABOVE THE 50TH PERCENTILE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
POPS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ049-058.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ007-010.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJB
AVIATION...72
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