674
FXUS64 KMEG 070453
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1153 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- SUMMER HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR THE SEVEN DAYS.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA TODAY. FURTHER HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH TOMORROW AND OVERSPREAD THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY.
A WEAK NORTHERN LATITUDE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A THERMAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO OUR EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A
STRONG RIDGE IS CENTERED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE,
EXTENDING INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA. THE MID-SOUTH IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN THESE THREE FEATURES, BUT IS MAINLY DOMINATED BY THE
RIDGES TO OUR WEST AND EAST. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT AND LIKELY TREND SLIGHTLY HOTTER TODAY AND SATURDAY.
NEVERTHELESS, THE PRESENCE OF THE NORTHERN LATITUDE TROUGH, ALONG
WITH INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE, WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCE OF
RAIN TODAY AND TOMORROW. STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND MOST
LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT IN THE MS RIVER DELTA THIS AFTERNOON, AND
FURTHER HEAT PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED OVER THE WEEKEND
AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LIMIT THE HEAT IMPACT BRIEFLY AND LOCALLY TODAY AND TOMORROW,
BUT MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH SHOULD EXPECT TO REMAIN HOT AND DRY.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL
DEAMPLIFY AND SHIFT EAST, LIMITING ANY FORCING OVER THE REGION AS
THE RIDGE OUT WEST EXPANDS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN OR
TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER, BUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE. FOR
NOW, OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY, WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID-90S. HEAT INDICES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN 105 DEGREES ARE LIKELY AREA-WIDE. THE NEED FOR HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEDNESDAY AND AFTER MIDWEEK, SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION
IS LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING PLAINS LOW PRESSURE. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FORCING REMAINS
WEAK, HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (HRRR/HREF) SUGGESTS SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BROAD TROUGH,
PARTICULARLY AFFECTING JBR, MEM, AND MKL. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THESE DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS IS
MODERATE, WARRANTING THE MAINTENANCE OF PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER SUNSET, LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO
DIMINISHING COVERAGE, WITH MEAN FLOW RETURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
A WEAK, BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH,
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST. . SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE MIN RHS BACK
ABOVE THE 50TH PERCENTILE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST, POPS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ049-058.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ007-010.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
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