336
FXUS64 KMEG 072343
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
643 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- WARM AND HUMID SUMMER DAYS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TODAY. SUBSEQUENT HEAT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE WARRANTED EACH DAY INTO NEXT WORKWEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST
TODAY, MAINLY NORTH OF I-40, AND EXTENDING FURTHER EAST
TOMORROW. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS NORTH OF
I-40 TODAY WITH THE PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A CALM AND WARM WEATHER DAY IS ON DISPLAY AT THIS HOUR WITH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH A THIN CUMULUS
SHIELD BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TAKING A LOOK AT SATELLITE
IMAGERY, A MCV IS CURRENTLY ROTATING OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS
IGNITING A FEW POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS OVER LITTLE ROCK. THIS MCV
HAS GIVEN LIFT TO A FEW POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY MCV IS
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF SPRINGFIELD, MISSOURI. AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS, CAMS ARE HINTING AT THIS
SECONDARY MCV TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST AND MAKING ITS WAY OVER TO
THE MID-SOUTH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
UPTICK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON, A WINDOW WILL OPEN UP FOR A
VERY CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. DIGGING INTO THE
PARAMETER SPACING, AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE, AROUND 20 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR, DCAPE UPWARDS OF 900, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
AROUND 6.5 C/KM, AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND
8.0 C/KM. IF THE CURRENT, OVERALL WEAK, CAP BREAKS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TALL
ENOUGH UPDRAFTS, THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL EXIST NORTH OF
THE I-40 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
LOOK TO CUT OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WANES.
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE AFOREMENTIONED MCVS PUSHES
EAST, ANOTHER WAVE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-40. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES WILL INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL HEAT
ADVISORY POTENTIAL TOMORROW. NBM CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO 105+F
HEAT INDICES IN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION, HOWEVER, HREF AND
LREF HAVE <20% CHANCE. MOVING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, HEAT WILL
BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AS A SUB-TROPICAL UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, BEGINS TO
SLOWLY NUDGE EAST. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH PAST THE MID-SOUTH BY SUNDAY, LIKELY WARRANTING A HEAT
ADVISORY IN AT LEAST THE DELTA REGION. HEADING INTO NEXT
WORKWEEK, ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT A SECONDARY RIDGE BEGINNING TO
BROADEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. HERE IN THE MID-SOUTH, HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT LIKELY PEAKING ON
WEDNESDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
WILL BE WARRANTED EACH DAY. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL ALSO EXIST EACH DAY NEXT WORKWEEK AS PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8". BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE OVERALL UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN.
AEH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION HAS
SUBSIDED WITH SHRAS TAKING OVER AS LIGHTNING COVERAGE DECREASES.
THEREFORE, HAVE REMOVED TS MENTION FROM THE INITIAL 6 HOURS OF
THE TAFS. A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHRAS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH 03Z
WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION THROUGH 06Z. AN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE WILL SWING SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT,
BRINGING DECAYING STORMS WITH IT. AS OF RIGHT NOW, ENOUGH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
LIGHTNING AS THEY PASS THROUGH JBR/MEM. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CIGS WILL CREATE A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ALONG I-40 INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THROUGH DAYTIME HEATING AT
MEM/MKL/TUP BETWEEN 20Z SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN AT A MINIMUM FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 50%. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST THROUGH
TOMORROW AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EAST.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FIRE
WEATHER PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ049-058.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ007-010.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JAB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page