536
FXUS64 KMEG 080501
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1201 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- WARM AND HUMID SUMMER DAYS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 105 FOR SOME ON SUNDAY, BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD BY MONDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
WARRANTED FOR SOME LOCATIONS NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST
ON SATURDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
LATEST SCANS FROM KNQA DO SHOW SOME SHOWERS ONGOING NEAR THE TN
RIVER, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO OUR WEST / NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS OUR AREA ALONG A DECAYING MCV THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO FAR, STORMS HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY TAME
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS TO NOTE IN SURROUNDING AREAS. TAKING A LOOK AT OUR
CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, STORMS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE EVEN FURTHER AS
THEY REACH OUR AREA. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FAIRLY DECENT CAP IN
PLACE, WITH LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY < 6 C/KM.
THERE IS STILL >1,500 J/KG OF MUCAPE IF STORMS CAN FIND A WAY TO
TAP INTO THE POTENTIAL, BUT MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL BE THE CASE. NONETHELESS, THE FORECAST
WILL CARRY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH ISOLATED CHANCES ELSEWHERE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
INTO SATURDAY, CAMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV, WHICH WILL STILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
REDEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING, BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING WITH THE LINGERING BOUNDARIES. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES GO, MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW
90S ONCE AGAIN. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 105 FOR SOME
LOCATIONS, MAINLY ACROSS THE DELTA REGIONS. HOWEVER, WITH SOME
CAMS DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE MORNING, THIS
WILL CREATE UNCERTAINTY. LATEST HREF GUIDANCE KEEPS CHANCES OF
EXCEEDING 105 LESS THAN 20%, SO OPTED AGAINST ISSUING ANY HEAT
PRODUCTS.
BY SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE TYPICAL, SUMMERTIME AIRMASS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH THIS AIRMASS AND LITTLE FORCING ALOFT,
THERE WILL BE DAILY, DIURNALLY-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
COVERAGE, HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AND MORE IN
THE POP-UP VARIETY RATHER THAN ANY ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM. AS FAR
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES GO, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
105 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS BY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAILY
HEAT ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG THROUGH THE
MIDWEST, ALLOWING THE MID-SOUTH TO RETURN TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A SMALL UPTICK IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING A FEW
DEGREES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS TROUGH, WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY PLAY A ROLE IN HOW NEXT WEEK ENDS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
AN MCV IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS OF 05Z AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING
IN THAT DIRECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOTABLY, THIS FEATURE IS
MOVING AT A SLOWER PACE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND WILL THUS
MOVE INTO JBR/MEM A FEW HOURS LATER. ADDITIONALLY, RECENT MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER POTENTIAL MAY BE DECREASING
TONIGHT, BUT HAVE OPTED TO RETAIN THE VCSH/-SHRA AT JBR/MEM.
OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AT JBR/MEM, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MCV WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ITS EXACT
POSITION COME SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS IN
MEM/MKL/TUP SEEING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE PAST 00Z - 01Z
SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL BRING DAILY, ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AS SUCH,
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 40% AND 20FT WINDS AT OR BELOW
10 MPH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JAB
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