876
FXUS64 KMEG 081715
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1215 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- WARM AND HUMID SUMMER DAYS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
TODAY'S TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DAMPENED BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 105 FOR SOME AREAS ON SUNDAY,
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY MONDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE WARRANTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH NEXT WORKWEEK.
- ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR SOME
LOCATIONS TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
AN OVERALL "COOLER" DAY IS IN PLAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 80S AS A DECAYING MCV ROTATES
JUST WEST OF THE MEMPHIS METROPOLITAN AREA. THE LATEST 500MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COLLOCATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MCV. TAKING A LOOK AT KNQA RADAR, IT IS CURRENTLY
DEPICTING A FEW POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MANY AREAS OVER THE
MID-SOUTH WITH LIFT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. AS THE
SHORTWAVE TRANSVERSES OUR AREA AND WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WHEN PEAK HEATING OCCURS, A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER AND
WEAK THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH OUR TYPICAL SUMMER
DAY. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF
AFTER SUNSET AS THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE BEGINS TO PUSH FURTHER EAST
AND OVER INTO NASHVILLE'S AREA. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO,
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS
RESULTED IN US FALLING JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105+F
HEAT INDICES) TODAY AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE PRECIPITATION TODAY
AND LOW-LYING AREAS, AS WINDS LIGHT AND CALM ALONG A WEAK LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A
FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER COVERAGE TOMORROW MORNING, INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THEY BECOME LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TOMORROW ALSO
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER COOLER ONE AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND THE
OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS MUCH THE SAME AS TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THOUGH SOME AREAS IN THE
DELTA REGION MAY APPROACH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105F, CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, NOT WARRANTING THE
ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW. MONDAY ON THE OTHER HAND,
WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS THE PATTERN ALOFT TURNS QUASI-ZONAL
AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BROADEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WITH
INCREASED DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THANKS TO INCREASED
MOISTURE AND PWATS LINGERING AROUND 1.8". NBM DEWPOINTS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY OVERDONE, HOWEVER, HEAT INDICES 105+F ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS AT LEAST SOME LOCATIONS HERE IN THE MID-SOUTH, WARRANTING
A HEAT ADVISORY.
THE PATTERN WON'T CHANGE VERY MUCH MOVING THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BROADEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WE REMAIN IN LARGELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A NEAR RINSE AND REPEAT OF MONDAY,
JUST A LITTLE WARMER BOTH DAYS, POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID 90S
BY WEDNESDAY. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO
PLACE US INTO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT AS DUAL UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHS BEGIN TO DIG, ONE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
THE OTHER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS ALOFT, A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER, HOW WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE WILL BE REMAINS UNRESOLVED AS THIS WILL GREATLY DEPEND
ON WHERE EXACTLY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LOWS SET UP. ONE THING
TO NOTE: HOW THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK PLAYS OUT WILL LARGELY
INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES AS THERE IS CURRENTLY ABOUT A 5 DEGREE
SPREAD. FOR NOW, WE ARE HEADING INTO MID AUGUST SO BE PREPARED
FOR WARM AND HUMID WEATHER TO LINGER.
AEH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
A SLOW MOVING (MCV) CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AT ALL
SITES. BEST TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY AT MEM AND
MKL, WILL BE FROM 18-22Z WITH COVERAGE BEGINNING TO DECREASE
TOWARDS SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT TERMINALS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY AT MKL AND TUP.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
DURING PEAK HEATING, PARTICULARLY AT MKL, TUP, AND PERHAPS MEM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
INCREASED MOISTURE AND OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
LIMITED AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 50% FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LIGHT 20 FT WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRE WEATHER PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CJC
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