154
FXUS64 KMEG 251113
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
613 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- ISOLATED EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE HUMIDITY.
- THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS, SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, WITH
SECONDARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A 595DAM 500MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WE'LL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN UNTIL THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS INTO OUR
REGION THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
MIDSOUTH.
LATE EVENING KSRX RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN OK. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. FURTHER EAST, MODEST CLOUD TOP
COOLING WAS NOTED ON GOES IR OVER NORTHERN AR. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY EDGE INTO EASTERN AR, SOUTHWEST TN AND NORTHWEST MS
TOWARD MORNING. NBM THUNDER PROBS APPEAR OVERDONE GIVEN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY, AND HAVE BEEN DIALED BACK THUNDER IN THE GRIDDED
FORECASTS.
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GLOBAL MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING, PRECEDED BY PREDAWN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOST HREF MEMBERS, INCLUDING THE
HRRR, BRING A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER FEATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND APPEAR TO BE MORE SUBTLE, PERHAPS TIED TO
AN MCV AND AIDED BY DAYTIME INSTABILITY. REFS GUIDANCE DEPICTS
LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, RELATIVE TO THE
HREF. IN EITHER CASE, THERE WILL BE SOME QUESTION ABOUT MLCIN IN
CLOUD COVER REMAINS FROM STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY. 00Z REFS
LIGHTNING PROBS INDICATE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
STORMS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY. RRFS SOUNDINGS DEPICT CAPE
NEAR 1000 J/KG ROOTED ABOVE A SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION. THIS
WILL BE MONITORED AS ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE ARRIVES.
DRY CONDITIONS APPEAR IN STORE IN TIME FOR THURSDAY EVENING'S
LUNAR ECLIPSE, THOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST MS.
WE'LL TRADE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER OF NORTHWEST FLOW FOR UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY, REACHING HEIGHTS OF 595DAM AT 500MB OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
DESPITE LOWER SUN ANGLE AND SHORTENED DAYLIGHT IN LATE AUGUST,
HIGHS WILL PREVAIL IN THE UPPER 90S OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A FEW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY TODAY, AND COVERAGE MAY INCREASE A BIT AS TEMPERATURES WARM.
HOWEVER, COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT. THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE WOULD RESULT IN THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AT
JBR AND MEM LATE TONIGHT, BUT EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS
UNCERTAIN. INCLUDED VCSH AND PROB30S FOR ALL TAFS TOWARD
SUNRISE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER TODAY. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, WITH SOME
FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE STORMS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND, EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JDS
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