381
FXUS64 KMEG 260443
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1143 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING, MAINLY
AFTER SUNRISE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN
THE MID TO LATE MORNING OVER AREAS TO THE EAST OF MEMPHIS.
- A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHERE THESE STORMS WILL TRACK. BUT IT APPEARS THAT
EASTERN ARKANSAS, THE MEMPHIS AREA, AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST STORM CHANCES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY THREAT. A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
- DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL PREVAIL IN THE UPPER 90S OVER MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS LOCATION AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY. CAMS HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING
STORMS OVER CENTRAL MO IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, NEAR A 925MB WARM
FRONT. 00Z SGF SOUNDING SHOWED A WARM LAYER NEAR 700MB THAT WILL
NEED TO BE DISPLACED BY HEIGHT FALLS OVERNIGHT. POST-00Z RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE TURNED DRY, BUT MOST OF THE CAMS, INCLUDING THE
HREF AND REFS, SUGGEST STORMS WILL INITIATE SOUTHWEST OF ST.
LOUIS, AND MOVE INTO THE BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN BY MIDMORNING.
00Z HRRR SOUNDINGS OVER WEST TN DEPICT DCAPE LESS THAN 700 J/KG,
BUT MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG BY NOON. 35-40KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD HELP STORMS STAY ORGANIZED, ASSUMING THEY DEVELOP
UPSTREAM EARLIER IN THE MORNING.
MLCAPE SHOULD RECOVER THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. CAMS HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
DEPICTING THE BULK OF STORMS PASSING CENTRAL AR, WITH A FEW
STORMS TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN AR, SOUTHWEST TN AND NORTHWEST
MS. DCAPE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER EASTERN AR. STORMS SHOULD
EXIT MS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY FOLLOW
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE MS RIVER, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT MAY SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MS
AND AREAS OF TN NEAR THE TN RIVER. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE LATE THURSDAY EVENING LUNAR ECLIPSE,
THOUGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST MS.
HOT AND DRY WEATHER APPEARS ON THE NEAR HORIZON, AS AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER NM AND AZ EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY
SUNDAY. WE REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE CENTER THROUGH
MIDWEEK, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDICES 100-105, SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE DELTA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TERMINALS
IN SOME CAPACITY OVER THE TAF PERIOD. THOUGH CAMS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE RUN TO RUN WITH TIMING, THE FIRST ROUND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IMPACTING JBR/MEM/MKL AROUND SUNRISE AND EXTENDING THROUGH
LATE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ROUNDS LOOK A LITTLE MORE
SPORADIC IN OVERALL COVERAGE, THEREFORE, OPTED FOR PROB30S
PRIMARILY ACROSS MEM/TUP. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. VARIABLE
WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED DAYTIME
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, THE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AS TEMPERATURES PREVAIL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...AEH
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