748
FXUS64 KMEG 270322
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1022 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST THURSDAY.
BEGINNING FRIDAY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY
FORECAST PERIOD.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. BY
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS LARGELY IN THE UPPER 90S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
AFTER A SEMI-ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH,
WE HAVE TRENDED CALMER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TAKING A LOOK AT
THE LATEST KNQA RADAR SWEEP, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXIST OVER
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE DELTA REGION WITH MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE AREAS NORTH WILL REMAIN LARGELY RAINFREE. THE SEVERE
WEATHER WINDOW HAS PRIMARILY CLOSED FOR THE EVENING. NARROW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS, SATURATED SOILS, AND CALM WINDS ALONG A LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO PRETTY DECENT FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. THOUGH DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME,
THOSE WITH AN EARLY MORNING COMMUTE SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION. ANY
FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE AS MIXING OCCURS.
HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW, WE'RE LOOKING PRETTY DRY
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, HOWEVER, AS WE REMAIN UNDER A QUASI-
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME, A FEW AFTERNOON POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. BY FRIDAY,
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE MIDWEST, DRYING US OUT
AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING OUR DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL BE THE TREND
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING,
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, BEGINS TO BUILD
AND BROADEN EAST. WITH A BROADENING RIDGE, COMES A WARMING TREND.
WE'LL BEGIN FLIRTING WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. COME MONDAY, ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
HINTING AT THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE NEARLY CENTER OVER US AT A
FORECASTED 594DAM. HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL WILL BE EVALUATED ON A
DAY TO DAY BASIS NEXT WEEK AS DEWPOINTS WILL PRIMARILY DRIVE
105+F HEAT INDICE POTENTIAL. THE LATEST 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS A 70-
80% CHANCE OF US LEANING ABOVE NORMAL MOVING THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER ARE NOT OVER.
AEH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AROUND MKL AND MEM HAS SUBSTANTIALLY
STABILIZED SINCE MIDAFTERNOON. TSRA OVER CENTRAL AR WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE SOUTH, WHILE ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOP EAST ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO NORTHWEST MS. THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDEVENING WILL LIKELY EXTEND TO THE SOUTH OF A
UTA-UOX LINE, OUTSIDE THE 25 MILE VC RING AT MEM.
PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE IFR VIS AT THE NON-MEM
TERMINALS. ONLY TUP HAS RECEIVED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT THIS
POINT, SO LAMP GUIDANCE VIS MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE INCREASED OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GO CALM ALONG
PREVIOUSLY SATURATED SOILS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH FRIDAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN NEAR OR
ABOVE 40%. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE MIDWEST BY
THE WEEKEND, DRYING US OUT AND POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MARGINAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL AT OR BELOW 35%. 20 FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB
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