858
FXUS64 KMEG 280452
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1152 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE WITNESSED WITH MUCH OF THE
MID-SOUTH LIKELY NOT SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
A CALM NIGHT IS BEING WITNESSED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH A FEW
POCKETS OF CIRRUS TRAILING BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT. AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS GO CALM ALONG
NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS, THERE EXISTS ANOTHER PRETTY DECENT
SIGNAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. BEST FOG CHANCES WILL EXIST IN
LOW-LYING AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. ANY
FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A "COOLDOWN" FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. DRY CONDITIONS
AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AS DRY AIR CONTINUES
TO FILTER IN ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST.
SATURDAY, UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING, CURRENTLY CENTERED
JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WILL BEGIN TO BROADEN
EAST. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WITH ALL OF THE MID-SOUTH SEEING
HIGHS IN THE 90S THIS WEEKEND. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE FROM THE
MIDWEST, OUR AREA WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. COME MONDAY, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE NEARLY CENTERING OVER US AT A FORECASTED
594DAM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BEGINNING SUNDAY
AND EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
DEWPOINTS DON'T LOOK TO SURGE WITH FORECAST VALUES IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP US AWAY FROM
OPPRESSIVE HEAT. THOUGH SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA
REGION, MAY NECESSITATE HEAT ADVISORIES AS EARLY AS MONDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY REACHING 105+F. THE LATEST LREF GUIDANCE
INDICATES 20-30% CHANCE OF HITTING INDICES 105+F IN THESE AREAS,
THOUGH THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN AND DEPEND ON DEWPOINTS. A
RELIEF FROM HEAT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY ANYTIME SOON AS THE LATEST
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES A 70-80% CHANCE OF THE MID-SOUTH BEING
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
AEH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TUP AND MKL TOWARD SUNRISE, BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE MIXES DOWN
AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
THE TUP TAF RETAINS AMD NOT SKED DURING ATCT NON-STAFFED HOURS,
DUE TO ASOS-ADAS COMMS OUTAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
THERE EXISTS A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY, GREATEST POTENTIAL IN LOW-LYING AREAS. INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL BELOW 35% IN
SOME AREAS AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN. 20 FT WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THIS SAME PERIOD. A POTENTIAL ELONGATED DRY
PERIOD WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AHEAD COULD LEAD TO MARGINAL
FIRE CONCERNS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB
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