002
FXUS64 KMEG 290325
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1025 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY. HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- THERE'S A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, A PROLONGED DRY SPELL IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE MID-SOUTH WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND AFTER AN OVERALL
PLEASANT DAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WILL BEGIN BROADENING EAST SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE 90S SATURDAY AND THE ENTIRE AREA SEEING
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY. LUCKILY, DRY AIR FROM
THE MIDWEST WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL CREATE A HOT AND DRY FEEL, AS OPPOSED
TO A HOT AND HUMID ONE, WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT LOW
PROBABILITIES (<15%) FOR HEAT INDICES 105+F BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, LIKELY KEEPING US AWAY FROM HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
MOVING INTO MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BROADEN OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GFS AND EWCF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
VERY WEAK UPPER-LOW BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO INFILTRATE.
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BEGIN INCREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S, IN
TURN, ALLOWING US TO BEGIN FLIRTING WITH 105+F HEAT INDICES. WE
WILL EVALUATE HEAT HEADLINES ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS, AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL DEPEND SIGNIFICANTLY ON DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. ISOLATED (20%) CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ENTER THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE. THOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL NOT BE
APPRECIABLE AND WILL ONLY RESULT IN INCREASED HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH. OTHERWISE, WE'LL REMAIN LARGELY DRY OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD, THE LATEST 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS US
HIGHLIGHTED WITH A 70-80% CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK AND A HALF OF SEPTEMBER.
AEH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
BASED ON NBM/HREF GUIDANCE, WHICH INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO TERMINAL VISIBILITY OR CEILING THRESHOLDS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT; WITH THE CURRENT DRY
AIRMASS, NO FOG OR AVIATION-RELATED RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-70%)
CHANCE OF MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BELOW
35 PERCENT AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY. A PROLONGED DRY PERIOD
WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...AC3
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