368
FXUS64 KMEG 291728
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.
- HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
HUMIDITY INCREASES.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE, A PROLONGED DRY SPELL IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO FEED DRY
AIR INTO THE MID-SOUTH. AS A RESULT, DESPITE A STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGE AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S, AT
LEAST THE HUMIDITY IS IN CHECK TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
HUMIDITY WILL START TO RETURN TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE
MOST APPARENT ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
BORDER ON SUNDAY, WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID AND UPPER
90S DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PARKED OVER THE REGION FOR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. AS HUMIDITY GRADUALLY INCREASES DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS
(105° OR GREATER). THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THIS COULD HAPPEN AS
EARLY AS MONDAY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA, THOUGH IT IS MORE LIKELY
TOWARD MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE WILL STIFLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE MOST PART. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH MAY WEAKEN THE RIDGE A BIT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK,
RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE ARE NOT SEEING
ANY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS OR RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL CONTINUING FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 7-10 KTS WILL DEVELOP BY 15Z.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY AS A DRY AIRMASS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. 20-FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY. A PROLONGED DRY PERIOD WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...DNM
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