223
FXUS64 KMEG 302315
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
615 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL, NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI, AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE
ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, A PROLONGED DRY SPELL IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
A 594 DM UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A
1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS
A RESULT, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING HIGHER DEWPOINTS,
IN THE LOWER 70S, INTO AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL FAIRLY LOW WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER,
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
SOME TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER
THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 70S DEWPOINTS
OVER THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH ON MONDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN, EXPECT THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH. THE HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 105F OR MORE ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL, NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI, AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE.
A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM ON MONDAY FOR
THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH AS
THE UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BUILDS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY HIT THE LOW 100S ACROSS THE DELTA.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH MAY
RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE RIDGE
MAY RETROGRADE WEST BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS MAY PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITIES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION. DOMINANT DRY AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
KEEP ANY SHRA OR TSRA ACTIVITY ISOLATED AT BEST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH KMEM WILL SEE WINDS
CONSISTENT AROUND 5 TO 6 KNOTS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS
LIGHTEN AND BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 MPH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS WELL. HOWEVER, FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. A PROLONGED DRY PERIOD WITH NO APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER THIS WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ001-007-008-
010>012-020.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019-
020-048>051-088-089.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AC3
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