540
FXUS64 KMEG 012318
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
618 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED, WITH AN
AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL FREQUENTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES, AND
LIMITED OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE HEAT
STRESS.
- ISOLATED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
A 596 DAM RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AS OF 11 AM. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 1-5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT NOON FOR PORTIONS OF MID-
SOUTH THROUGH 8 PM FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 106F. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE RETROGRADES, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED MOISTURE FLOW COMBINED WITH STAGNANT
UPPER 90S, AND PERHAPS LOW 100S, AN AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY WILL
GO INTO EFFECT WEDNESDAY AT 11 AM AND PERSIST THROUGH 8 PM
SATURDAY. LIMITED COOLING AT NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WHICH MAKES THIS
HEAT DANGEROUS. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL
RESULT IN CUMULATIVE HEAT STRESS, SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING THE
HEALTH RISK FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON PROVIDING TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM HEAT. WHILE ISOLATED
SUMMER-TIME CONVECTION IS HARD TO PINPOINT, THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
NO LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WORK WEEK
THERE IS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT ONCE WAS TS DOLLY
AND TS EDOUARD WILL RIDE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
TROUGHING WILL SET UP IN THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NUDGING
DEWPOINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY, BUT RELIEF DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ON THE
HORIZON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERING OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DNM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ENSURES VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GREATER THAN 5 KNOT
TAILWINDS AT MEM FOR THE EVENING PUSH.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN HOT, DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 30% AND 20-FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT, THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN UNDER STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING WILL CAUSE 10-HOUR FUELS TO REMAIN LOW. FOG POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW OVERALL, RESTRICTED PRIMARILY TO LOW-LYING RIVER
VALLEYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-
035-036-048-049-058.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ001-007-008-
010>012-020.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-019-020-
048>051-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...AC3
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page