824
FXUS64 KMEG 021103
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
603 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES, WITH AN AREAWIDE
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL FREQUENTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES, AND
LIMITED OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE HEAT
STRESS.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE TENNESSEE
RIVER.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
STRONG RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS, INCLUDING THE MID-
SOUTH. RADIOSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM TUESDAY EVENING SHOW DRY,
SUBSIDENT PROFILES WITH THE RIDGE AT 596 DM OVER CENTRAL
TENNESSEE WITH MODELS SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT THE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN THIS STRENGTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE,
EXPECT DAILY TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH, IF NOT EXCEED, 100 F WITH
HEAT INDICES OF UPWARDS OF 105 - 110 F THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY "DRIER" THAN EARLIER THIS
SUMMER, AROUND 70 F DURING PEAK HEATING, WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT
INDICES BELOW 110 F IN MOST AREAS. SO, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED STARTING FROM WEDNESDAY AT 11 AM CDT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPING THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST BEFORE
BEING FILLED IN BY THE BROADER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE CONTINUATION OF THE
RIDGING OVER THE MID-SOUTH BEYOND SATURDAY, BUT ALSO BEGIN TO
SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING MODEL VARIABILITY AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST. SOME MEMBERS ATTEMPT TO BRING WEAKER (588 DM) HEIGHTS
WEST OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THAT COULD LEAD TO INCREASED AFTERNOON
SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT THIS SIGNAL IS STILL TOO WEAK TO WARRANT ANY
EXPECTATION OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. SO, DON'T GET YOUR HOPES UP
ABOUT COOLER WEATHER IN THE NEAR FUTURE WITH A GROWING CONSENSUS
THAT DANGEROUS HEAT MAY STICK AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
PERSISTENT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF HOT AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. ENOUGH HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN TO KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 30%, BUT SOME AREAS MAY STILL DROP BELOW
40% THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS, WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO HOLD 20 FOOT WINDS BELOW 5 KNOTS ACROSS
THE REGION.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...JDS
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