325
FXUS64 KMEG 022323 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
623 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES, WITH AN AREAWIDE
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL FREQUENTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES, AND
LIMITED OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE HEAT
STRESS.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NO
RELIEF FOR THE DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS FEATURES A 596 DM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S TODAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
CONTINUATION OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD IS LOCATED NEAR THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF COAST. NOON TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH BIAS WITH NBM DEWPOINTS
TODAY AS DRIER AIR HAS BEEN MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THUS, THE
DEWPOINTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
ACCORDINGLY TO BETTER REFLECT TRENDS. WHILE FORECAST HEAT INDEX
VALUES HAVE TRENDED LOWER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED, THEY WILL
STILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 TO 106 DEGREES IN MANY
LOCATIONS.
HOT AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
RISE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING BETWEEN
105 TO 109 DEGREES. THUS, THE HEAT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST 8 PM SATURDAY. OVERALL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING LOW (< 20% CHANCE) FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING DURING PEAK HEATING.
LONG-TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE HOT TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEKEND WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING LOW AT BEST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 30 HOURS, UNDER A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
PERSISTENT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ENOUGH HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
TO KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 30%, BUT SOME
AREAS MAY STILL DROP BELOW 40% INTO NEXT WEEK. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
ALSO REMAIN BELOW 5 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...PWB
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