402
FXUS64 KMEG 032303
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
603 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK. AN AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 109 DEGREES.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THIS MORNING'S UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO FEATURE AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE HAS MOSTLY SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. NOON TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 90S
AREAWIDE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A HIGH BIAS WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DURING PEAK HEATING AND MIXING. CONSEQUENTLY, HEAT
INDEX VALUES HAVE UNDERPERFORMED, REMAINING MOSTLY JUST BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THUS, DEWPOINTS WERE BLENDED TOWARDS THE
NBM 10TH AND 25TH PERCENTILES. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING
VERY LOW AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. LONG RANGE
ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND THEN RE-STRENGTHENING ACROSS
THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. THUS, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S TO APPROACHING 100 DEGREES
EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT SPATIAL COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
WETTING RAINFALL CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED. WHILE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, HOT TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF
35 TO 45 PERCENT. DUE TO DRY SOIL CONDITIONS, NIGHTTIME FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...ANS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page