737
FXUS64 KMEG 052307
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
607 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT WEEK. AN AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR HEAT INDICES UP TO 109 DEGREES.
- LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OVER
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. OVERALL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO WORSEN IN THE COMING WEEKS WITH THIS PROLONGED HOT
AND DRY PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WELCOME TO THE LONG, HOLIDAY WEEKEND FEATURING WELL ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE MID-
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
BY MIDDAY, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ALREADY.
HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED OVER 105 FOR MANY AS WELL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S ACROSS THE AREA BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW, WHICH FOR THOSE
KEEPING TRACK IS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE
DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUING, A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, AN
ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NOT REACH
105 DEGREES TOMORROW, MAINLY ALONG THE TN RIVER. THE UNCERTAINTY
ALONG THE TN RIVER GENERALLY EXISTS DUE TO A BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE
TIMING OF THIS IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND HOW QUICKLY THE
"COOLER" AIR WILL BE ABLE TO FILTER IN BEHIND. AS SUCH, OPTED TO
LEAVE THE AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF
THIS, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (GENERALLY < 20%) OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NORTH MS. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF TO THE ONGOING, OPPRESSIVE HEAT.
INTO MONDAY, A BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE CLEARED THE
AREA, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES. WHILE
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS DRYING OUT FURTHER, AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE-NORMAL
FOR EARLY TO MID SEPTEMBER. AS SUCH, NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WITH THE DRY
CONDITIONS, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT JUST BELOW
105 FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE DELTA REGION. WHILE HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH TO EXCEED 105 DEGREES FOR THE DELTA,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS GENERALLY LOW AND ANY HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE
HANDLED ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS IF NEEDED.
BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK, THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A SMALL
PATTERN SHIFT. LREF GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS SPREAD AMONGST
MEMBERS GROWING PARTICULARLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, SO GENERAL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE SPREAD AMONGST
MEMBERS, GUIDANCE DOES KEEP THE MID-SOUTH IN A GENERALLY ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SO,
WHILE POP CHANCES MAY RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THE HEAT IS
CERTAINLY HERE TO STAY UNFORTUNATELY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AIRSPACE AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION. A FEW POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN'T BE RULED AT TUP TOMORROW AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DIP DOWN OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE TOMORROW.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 30% TO 40% RANGE, WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 30%
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
WETTING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...AEH
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