787
FXUS64 KMEG 212334
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
634 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A LOW-END STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM THREAT SOUTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON.
- COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT, BRINGING COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK.
- MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH SIGNALS OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN LATE IN THE MONTH.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST EAST OF THE MEMPHIS METRO AS
OF 10 AM. ON THE 'COOL' SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ON GOING. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS DESCENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER AN
AIRMASS WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70 DEWPOINTS. MOISTURE AND WEAK
LIFT FROM THE BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO INITIATE ISOLATED COVERAGE
SOUTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR VERY
STEEP SURFACE LAPSE RATES AND ~1500 DCAPE. THIS WOULD WARRANT A
DAMAGING WIND/DOWNBURST THREAT IN THE STRONGEST STORMS, HOWEVER,
OVERALL SHEAR PROFILES ARE DISORGANIZED AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
LESS THAN 20 KTS. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS LOW, BUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
BY TOMORROW, THE FRONT SHOULD BE WELL CLEAR OF THE REGION AND A
FEW LINGERING RESIDUAL SHOWERS SHOULD END BY SUNSET. NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL FEEL SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY, BUT
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TASTE OF COOLER WEATHER FOR EVERYONE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON SENDING 500 MB TEMPS
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE JUST WEST OF THE MID-SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES CLOSEST TO THE RIDGE MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 90 THIS
WEEKEND IN OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE TOLERABLE. AS
OF NOW, MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME, BUT WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RAIN CHANCES. IN THE LONG
TERM, THE LREF DOES HINT AT A COOL DOWN WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE 25TH OR LOWER PERCENTILES TO ROUND OUT SEPTEMBER.
DNM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT TUP LATER THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY
EVENING. THUS, THE PROB30 FOR CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED AT
TUP. OTHERWISE, THE PROBABILITY OF ACTIVITY REMAINS TOO LOW TO
MENTION WITH THE OTHER TAF SITES. MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AT ALL SITES, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OCCURRING AT JBR. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 6-9 KTS TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE NEAR-RECORD
HEAT, GRADUALLY RECOVERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. DUE TO
MOSTLY DRY SOILS, FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS MINIMAL OVERALL,
RESTRICTED PRIMARILY TO BRIEF, LOCALIZED MORNING FOG ALONG LOW-
LYING RIVER VALLEYS AND ANYWHERE THAT RECEIVES RAINFALL FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CMA
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