691
FXUS64 KMEG 221715
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1215 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
GOES WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE LATE THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT, REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR
TRENDS INDICATED ELEVATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER. LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S NORTH OF I-40, AND MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S SOUTH.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
LINE WILL RESULT IN LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAN DEPICTED BY
THE NBM GUIDANCE. THUS, TEMPERATURES WERE SUBSEQUENTLY LOWERED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. SHORT TERM CAMS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE COMFORTABLE NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH OF I-40, AND MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
SOUTH, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.
LONG TERM ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE MID-SOUTH REMAINING
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITHOUT THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WE HAVE EXPERIENCED LATELY. BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DAMPEN OUT THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES
BECOMING MORE SEASONABLE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
A COLD FRONT IS STALLED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MEM TERMINAL. POST
FRONTAL STRATUS RESIDES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH DECKS GENERALLY
AROUND 2000 FEET. THESE DECKS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT
THROUGH THE DAY AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
CYCLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT LIMITING
ANY FOG POTENTIAL UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH DRY SOILS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...DNM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page