859
FXUS64 KMEG 231743
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1243 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
- A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES MAY BEGIN TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
A CHANGE FROM PERPETUAL HEAT HAS FINALLY LOOSENED ITS GRASP
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH TODAY. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS PLACE A COLD FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE GULF. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
TODAY. MID-LEVEL WV IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE REGION, WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING TOO HIGH. THEREFORE, EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW 80S
WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY REMAINING BELOW 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
THE CURRENT SURFACE PATTERN WILL LARGELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING SOUTHERLIES BACK TO THE
REGION BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
ARRIVE AS A RESULT, BUT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH UP INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH NBM PROBABILITIES OF REACHING AT OR
ABOVE 90 DEGREES ONLY MAKING IT TO AROUND 30% - 40% NEXT TUESDAY.
SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS A FEW STRAGGLING
SHOWERS MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, POPS REMAIN BELOW 40% OWING TO RELATIVELY HIGH
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE ANTECEDENT
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY EVENING. REGARDLESS, THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO BE DRY, ESPECIALLY THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEKEND.
LOOKING BEYOND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REVEALS EVER-INCREASING
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AS HURRICANE POLO, CURRENTLY PRESENT A FEW
HUNDRED MILES OFF THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE OF MEXICO, RECURVES
NORTH INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN
POLO AND A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COASTLINE WILL BE IMPORTANT TO
THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY AS IT PHASES WITH THE TROUGH. NBM DATA
FROM THIS MORNING REFLECTS THIS FACT WITH A 15 - 20 DEGREE SPREAD
AMONGST FORECAST 25TH - 75TH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER,
THE PREVAILING AVERAGE AMONGST THE ENSEMBLES IS FOR THE RESULTING
UPPER TROUGH STRUCTURE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CONUS ALONGSIDE A
LOW CHANCE FOR 590+ DM 500 MB HEIGHTS TO RETURN. REGARDLESS, IT
IS LIKELY STILL TOO EARLY TO DEDUCE A REASONABLE FORECAST INTO
NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODEL VARIABILITY SETTLES DOWN IN THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
AN MVFR DECK CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH. MODEL DATA,
TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS, IS QUITE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY TELLS A DIFFERENT STORY.
JBR AND TUP ARE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN DECK, SO THESE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT. MEM AND ESPECIALLY MKL ARE WELL
ENTRENCHED IN THE DECK AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE MVFR DECK IN
PLACE FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE NE AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING TO 5-
7 KTS OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
WETTING RAINS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, BUT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ABOVE 40% FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING 10 HOUR FUEL
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LIGHT 20 FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP FIRE
DANGER LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. WETTING RAINS MAY RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, AND WEST
TENNESSEE SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A FURTHER DECREASE IN FIRE
DANGER.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...SJM
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